The Fighting, er, "Spending" Phils

Truth: Last year, the Philadelphia Phillies signed Ryan Howard to a five-year, $125 million extension.  That’s an average of $15 million per season.

Consequences: Leading up to the extension, Howard had averaged 49.5 home runs per year, the most of any player in baseball by a noticeable margin.  In those four seasons, Howard never hit fewer than 45 home runs and drove in at least 136 runs—stellar production for any player, regardless of position.  He’d won a National League Most Valuable Player Award and helped the Phillies reach two World Series (winning one).  Clearly, this was the kind of player that was the face of a franchise, and one around whom baseball people love to build franchises.  However…

By the time the contract kicks in (2012), Howard will already be 32 years old, a time when many players are already in their decline phase.  In fact, 2010 already looked an awful lot like the possible beginning of that very decline.  Clearly, a .276 batting average with 31 home runs and 108 RBIs was a good season, it just wasn’t a Ryan Howard season, nor was it a $25 million season.  Further, the early returns on his 2011 season seem to correspond to a further decline (at least so far), with Howard hitting .274 with an .803 OPS (representing a career-low).  Granted, 22 games played is a small sample size, but coupled with his 2010 stats, there’s reason to believe that age, as well as the absence of Chase Utley from the Phillies lineup, is really hurting Howard. 

That’s a great deal of uncertainty for a player who’s still owed the entirety of a $125 million contract.  And, because this is baseball, well, that’s all guaranteed money—money the Phillies will have to pay their slugging first baseman, providing he doesn’t pull a Gil Meche and walk away from a boatload of cash.  With all the problems facing the Phillies already this season (see the Domonic Brown and Utley injuries), it looks like the most significant problems are yet to come.  In all seriousness, how are the Phillies going to continue their recent success buried underneath the enormous dollars owed to so many star-caliber players?  Don’t forget, this is also a team that committed more than $15 million to an almost deceased Utley through 2013.  They owe $109 million to Cliff Lee, already pitching in his 30s and $20 million per season to Roy Halladay through 2013.  Clearly, there’s a very small window for winning here, and despite some early success in 2011, due to recent debilitations and declines, that window already looks to be closing.