Bouncing Back After a French Dip?

In each of his first two full big league seasons, former phenom Jeff Francoeur drove in at least 103 runs while averaging 24 home runs.  He found himself on the cover of Sports Illustrated and looked to be developing into every bit the franchise-type player the Braves were hoping he’d become when they drafted him.  However, those first two seasons were all the way back in 2006-07, almost eons ago in baseball terms.  Poor plate discipline would eventually get the better of him as pitchers were able to abuse his willingness to chase pitches outside of the strike zone.  From 2008-2010, Francoeur hit just .256 with a .301 OBP and .389 SLG, only occasionally showing flashes of the player many believed he would be in his early days with Atlanta.  Even two different changes of scenery (Mets and Rangers) couldn’t resurrect what once looked to be a career on the rise.

Things really seemed to bottom out for Francoeur in 2010 when he hit just .249 overall with a .383 SLG.  His LD% also bottomed out at a meager 14.4% and it was clear that he simply stopped hitting the ball hard.  He also exhibited evidence of developing even worse pitch recognition, never a strong suit to begin with.  Francoeur swung at 43.3% of pitches outside the strike zone in 2010, further demonstrating that his early success was a thing of the past.  Simply stated, pitchers keyed in on his kryptonite-like weakness and were able to exploit it at almost every turn.

Yet in 2011, Francoeur is off to a terrific start in Kansas City where he’s hoping to resurrect a career in decline.  A .330 average and .963 OPS suggest that he may have finally figured a few things out, but it’s unclear whether or not he can sustain these levels.  Logic dictates that he’ll eventually run into some struggles and his current numbers, lofty though they may be, will correct themselves and regress toward his career levels. Still, Royals hitting coach Kevin Seitzer seems confident, siting Francoeur’s newfound plate discipline as one catalyst for his early success.  Somehow, Seitzer’s optimism smacks of a certain amount of spin doctoring, as there’s no statistical evidence to suggest that Francoeur has changed his approach in any way.  What is it they say about leopards and spots?   Who knows?  But leopards aren’t very good at the game of baseball, and Francoeur isn’t changing his spots any time soon.