Bouncing Back After a French Dip?

In each of his first two full big league seasons, former phenom Jeff Francoeur drove in at least 103 runs while averaging 24 home runs.  He found himself on the cover of Sports Illustrated and looked to be developing into every bit the franchise-type player the Braves were hoping he’d become when they drafted him.  However, those first two seasons were all the way back in 2006-07, almost eons ago in baseball terms.  Poor plate discipline would eventually get the better of him as pitchers were able to abuse his willingness to chase pitches outside of the strike zone.  From 2008-2010, Francoeur hit just .256 with a .301 OBP and .389 SLG, only occasionally showing flashes of the player many believed he would be in his early days with Atlanta.  Even two different changes of scenery (Mets and Rangers) couldn’t resurrect what once looked to be a career on the rise.

Things really seemed to bottom out for Francoeur in 2010 when he hit just .249 overall with a .383 SLG.  His LD% also bottomed out at a meager 14.4% and it was clear that he simply stopped hitting the ball hard.  He also exhibited evidence of developing even worse pitch recognition, never a strong suit to begin with.  Francoeur swung at 43.3% of pitches outside the strike zone in 2010, further demonstrating that his early success was a thing of the past.  Simply stated, pitchers keyed in on his kryptonite-like weakness and were able to exploit it at almost every turn.

Yet in 2011, Francoeur is off to a terrific start in Kansas City where he’s hoping to resurrect a career in decline.  A .330 average and .963 OPS suggest that he may have finally figured a few things out, but it’s unclear whether or not he can sustain these levels.  Logic dictates that he’ll eventually run into some struggles and his current numbers, lofty though they may be, will correct themselves and regress toward his career levels. Still, Royals hitting coach Kevin Seitzer seems confident, siting Francoeur’s newfound plate discipline as one catalyst for his early success.  Somehow, Seitzer’s optimism smacks of a certain amount of spin doctoring, as there’s no statistical evidence to suggest that Francoeur has changed his approach in any way.  What is it they say about leopards and spots?   Who knows?  But leopards aren’t very good at the game of baseball, and Francoeur isn’t changing his spots any time soon.

The Fighting, er, "Spending" Phils

Truth: Last year, the Philadelphia Phillies signed Ryan Howard to a five-year, $125 million extension.  That’s an average of $15 million per season.

Consequences: Leading up to the extension, Howard had averaged 49.5 home runs per year, the most of any player in baseball by a noticeable margin.  In those four seasons, Howard never hit fewer than 45 home runs and drove in at least 136 runs—stellar production for any player, regardless of position.  He’d won a National League Most Valuable Player Award and helped the Phillies reach two World Series (winning one).  Clearly, this was the kind of player that was the face of a franchise, and one around whom baseball people love to build franchises.  However…

By the time the contract kicks in (2012), Howard will already be 32 years old, a time when many players are already in their decline phase.  In fact, 2010 already looked an awful lot like the possible beginning of that very decline.  Clearly, a .276 batting average with 31 home runs and 108 RBIs was a good season, it just wasn’t a Ryan Howard season, nor was it a $25 million season.  Further, the early returns on his 2011 season seem to correspond to a further decline (at least so far), with Howard hitting .274 with an .803 OPS (representing a career-low).  Granted, 22 games played is a small sample size, but coupled with his 2010 stats, there’s reason to believe that age, as well as the absence of Chase Utley from the Phillies lineup, is really hurting Howard. 

That’s a great deal of uncertainty for a player who’s still owed the entirety of a $125 million contract.  And, because this is baseball, well, that’s all guaranteed money—money the Phillies will have to pay their slugging first baseman, providing he doesn’t pull a Gil Meche and walk away from a boatload of cash.  With all the problems facing the Phillies already this season (see the Domonic Brown and Utley injuries), it looks like the most significant problems are yet to come.  In all seriousness, how are the Phillies going to continue their recent success buried underneath the enormous dollars owed to so many star-caliber players?  Don’t forget, this is also a team that committed more than $15 million to an almost deceased Utley through 2013.  They owe $109 million to Cliff Lee, already pitching in his 30s and $20 million per season to Roy Halladay through 2013.  Clearly, there’s a very small window for winning here, and despite some early success in 2011, due to recent debilitations and declines, that window already looks to be closing.

McCourt TV: A Must-See Affair

In a move that few could have imagined, the Los Angeles Dodgers, long believed to be perhaps the model baseball franchise, had control of the team placed in the hands of Major League Baseball.  More accurately, day to day control of the team was wrenched from the hands of owner Frank McCourt, despite his death-grip.  Commissioner Bud Selig, who welcomed the McCourts (Frank and his wife) into baseball’s exclusive ownership club in 2004 with open arms, was always a strong supporter of the notion of returning the Dodgers to “family ownership”.  Their relationship was always seen as outwardly friendly.  However, like a close friend that’s had far too much to drink, Selig simply took the keys away from McCourt, and told him to take a cab home.

What exactly this means has yet to be clearly defined.  Since our prying eyes cannot yet see into the future, patience will have to guide our judgment(s), although fear is bound to cloud any vision we may have.  This is a potentially volatile situation, the way staring contests between billionaires often are.   Already, things have soured to such a degree that MLB deemed further inaction impossible—clearly a sign that their faith in the McCourts has waned.

History will eventually judge how we come to see the demise of the Los Angeles Dodgers, such as it is.  One would have to imagine that history will not be kind to the McCourt era.  From the moment the McCourts assumed control of the team, things have steadily declined in Los Angeles.  Debt mounted.  Attendance waned.  Most recently, as if things weren’t bad enough, violence has redefined the way fans across the country see the Dodgers.  Near beating deaths do seem to have a way of putting things in perspective, even for the most oblivious of narcissists.

From the very beginning, the Dodgers were not a sound business investment, or, they weren’t treated as such.  The team was not run capably or thoughtfully.  Rather, they were used and abused like a boutique lap dog—never truly loved, but dressed up and shown off in an effort to impress friends and hangers-on.  Owning a Major League Baseball team was just another in a series of extravagant purchases for the McCourts, who always seemed to view opulence as a virtue.  As long as they had access to life’s extravagances, perhaps the necessities would somehow take care of themselves.  Alas, they didn’t.

Life fell apart pretty quickly for the McCourts.  Apparently all the material wealth could not sustain a healthy and nourshing relationship—something the couple may have never enjoyed.  Jamie McCourt filed for divorce on October 28, 2009, laying claim to half of the team and other shared assets valued at more than $1 billion (with a “B”).  In the petition, filed in a Los Angeles County Superior Court, Mrs. McCourt cited irreconcilable differences as the catalyst for the separation, also demanding that she be reinstated to the position from which she was fired (by her husband) just one week prior.  And so began the utter awesomeness…

The very public, often ugly divorce proceedings between Mr. and Mrs. McCourt should serve as a warning: this is only the beginning of what is almost certain to become the baseball equivalent of a diarrhea slip-n-slide.  Already embroiled in numerous legal battles, and being attacked from all directions, it’s difficult to imagine Frank McCourt simply shrugging off the notion of losing control of his Los Angeles Dodgers.  This is a man who’s already quite accustomed to fighting, to lashing out in spite, to hurting anyone that gets in his way.  Can anyone honestly say that they’d be surprised to see Frank McCourt barricaded inside Dodger Stadium, stripped to his underwear, covered in war-paint and armed to the teeth?  Okay, perhaps that’s a bit of an overstatement, but this is a man who is quite possibly on the verge of a Charlie Sheen-sized meltdown.   We’re talking ugly, folks—monkey knife fight-type ugly.  Rest assured, there will be blood.

Batting Average Immune Deficiency Syndrome (BAIDS)

Twins catcher Joe Mauer is dying.  Or, maybe Mauer is just really, really sick.  It may even be a case of BAIDS: Batting Average Immune Deficiency Syndrome.  Whatever it is, things aren’t looking good for the three time American League batting champion.  MLB.com revealed that Twins senior vice president and general manager Bill Smith stated Mauer’s symptoms included a flu-like illness and general fatigue, prompting the All-Star to fly to Baltimore to see a specialist.  And, when your job (catching) requires non-stop use of your legs, and your legs simply stop working, well, you don’t have to be a doctor to know that things are in a bad way. 

As a catcher, it’s reasonable to suppose that the day-to-day grind of his employment might cause a few nagging injuries, perhaps even requiring the occasional visit to the team trainer.  However, Mauer’s career has been punctuated by a series of seemingly strange physical ailments.  He underwent a surgical procedure to remove a kidney obstruction that was causing back pain.  The procedure was seen as a success, although Mauer was required to limit his running due to complications in his legs.  It was later revealed that additional back problems existed, specifically inflammation of the sacroiliac joint (an area of the pelvis).   Now, there’s this presumably new series of problems afflicting the Twins franchise player.

It’s good to hear that doctors will be toiling away trying to find the true root cause of Mauer’s physical troubles.  At the same time, if Mauer needs to see a doctor at a place like Johns Hopkins, it begs the question whether this is a more serious issue than the team is reporting.  It also begs the question as to why he’s going to Baltimore when there’s a perfectly good hospital in Mauer’s home state of Minnesota.  Let’s be honest here; it’s not as though the Mayo Clinic wouldn’t be able to help.  Why Mauer and the Twins would pass on an opportunity to spend money locally doesn’t bode well for the state economy of Minnesota.  A dyed in the wool Minnesotan like Mauer should know better.

Crashing the Party

Despite leading the Rangers in spring home runs, RBIs and slugging, Chris “Crash” Davis was optioned to AAA to begin the 2011 season.  As a 22 year old, Davis has a breakout season to remember, totaling 39 home runs between AA, AAA, and the Major Leagues.  In fact, in 80 games at the big league level that year, Davis hit 17 home runs, driving in 55 runs and appeared to have secured his position as the Rangers first baseman of the present and future.  Certainly, things were looking bright for the rising star.

And then something happened.  Davis stopped making contact, almost altogether in fact.  Granted, he always carried a lofty K%, never striking out in fewer than 23.6% of his at bats at any professional level.  However, with the Rangers in 2009, things reached an all-time low (or, high depending on your view of the glass)—38.4%K.  This led to Davis’ batting average plummeting from the .280 mark he carried as a vaunted rookie to .238 (.284 OBP) in his sophomore campaign.  His inability to make consistent contact forced the Rangers to option him to AAA to refine his skills. 

It seemed to work.  In 44 minor league games in 2009 Davis reverted back to his dominant form, hitting .327 while slugging .521.  Sure, he was still striking out more than 23% of the time, but he was clearly making more than enough contact to reassert himself as a professional, enough that the Rangers rewarded him with a September call-up.  Once again, if only for a short time, Davis hit.  After his September recall, Davis amassed 110 at bats, hitting .318, and slugging .518 (5 HR).  He still struck out more than 25% of the time, but he seemed to regain his stroke and again lay claim to the first base job in Texas.

Alas, the story repeated itself in 2010.  Davis struggled in April, hitting .188, eventually resulting in his return to the minors.  Another go-round, this time in July, yielded almost identical results (see: .188 AVG in 16 games), and another return to AAA.  September was almost as cruel, with Davis hitting to just a .211 batting average, all the while striking out at an alarming rate (33.3%).  Still, each time he found himself in the minor leagues (103 games), Davis hit: .327 AVG, .520 SLG, .383 OBP, 14 HR, 80 RBIs.  It was becoming fairly obvious that Davis was heading down the dreaded road of the AAAA-player.

Now, following the Josh Hamilton injury, Davis may be getting his last shot with the Rangers.  He was recalled from AAA Round Rock on April 13 to take Hamilton’s roster spot, and with good reason.   Through his first five games, Davis was absolutely raping the ball, hitting .429 slugging an absurd 1.095 (4 HR).  Could this be the year Davis lives up to his potential?

There are obstacles to his success.  One is Mitch Moreland, the incumbent starting first baseman.  Moreland is currently batting .333, successfully reaching base in all but one game to date, and has given manager Ron Washington ample reason to keep him firmly entrenched at the position.  While Moreland doesn’t possess nearly the power that Davis does, he’s shown himself to be a more consistent contact hitter at the big league level.  Another consideration is Michael Young, a player without a true position, but one that currently serves as the Rangers’ primary DH and can spell Moreland at first when necessary.  Should Young get traded (or Davis for that matter), at bats would suddenly become available and a potential outpouring of power could lie in wait.  For the moment, however, Davis (and his potential fantasy owners) will have to remain patient—something Davis has shown little inclination toward thus far in his strikeout-riddled career.

No Pain, No Gain

Feeling fat?  Feeling bloated?  Feeling as though all your post-winter efforts to shed those extra pounds have fallen flat?  Are you living in fear of how women and children will scream in terror at the sight of your bloated, John Goodman-like body once bathing suit season rolls around?  Well, the promise of a new day lies just around the corner.

While it’s unlikely that more Doritos are the answer, and drinking away your sorrows only pushes your BMI closer to the brink of diabetic coma, there is a glimmer of hope.  Proper diet and exercise, the cornerstones of physical fitness, are sometimes not enough in the battle of the bulge.  Occasionally, especially in the most urgent and problematic cases, outside intervention is necessary.  In these instances, the assistance of a personal trainer can make the difference between vulgar corpulence and relative physical normalcy.

The United States, beset by a plague of chronic obesity, can now breathe a collective sigh of relief, as the health of the nation got a little “boost” today.  Barry Bonds’ personal trainer, Greg Anderson, was released from federal custody today, under the direction of U.S. District Judge Susan Illston.  The decision places one more qualified fitness guru back on the open market—a move that can only benefit the overall health and well-being of the average, overweight American.  Perhaps Anderson can even help you.

Clearly, Greg Anderson is the type of personal trainer that is willing to go the extra mile to ensure that his clients achieve a peak level of performance.  Moreover, those same clients, having reached the pinnacle of performance, are most assuredly one step closer to total and complete self-satisfaction.  Not only does Anderson cure the ills of the human body, but his exhaustive methods repair fractured psyches.  We’re talking about a person who is 50% gym-rat, 50% psychiatrist, and 50% fitness messiah.  Mathematics alone reveals that Anderson’s at least 50% greater than the average human being.

Additionally, Anderson isn’t going to let something like “laws” get in the way of you achieving your fitness goals.  Remember, this is a man who has spent some 15 months in prison for a single fitness client.  Imagine what he might be willing to do for the rest of the wanting, American public.  Imagine about what he might be willing (and able) to do for you.  Talk about going the distance.

How to Say You're Sorry-iano...

There was a great deal of head-shaking following the Yankees offseason signing of Rafael Soriano to a three year, $35 million contract.  There was nothing strange about a team paying almost $12 million per season for a pitcher of Soriano’s caliber, especially since he was coming off a season in which he led the American League in saves (45).  Feel free to debate the merits of making a significant investment in any closer, but Soriano’s deal is in line with other top-flight closers of the day.  Joe Nathan, recovering nicely from Tommy John surgery is scheduled to make $11.25 million and Mariano Rivera, the king of kings (in terms of closers), will make a cool $15 million.  So, the precedent exists to pay top-dollar for an elite bullpen arm. 

However, the Yankees already had a closer (the closer) in Mariano Rivera, meaning the team was going to pay a hefty sum for Soriano to be a middle reliever.  There was no precedent for paying a middle reliever over $10 million per season—none whatsoever.  It’s simply not the kind of things well-managed baseball teams do.  Yankee supporters rationalized the deal away by convincing themselves that having two of the game’s best closers pitching successively and successfully would effectively limit each game to a seven inning affair, with innings eight and nine theoretically “in the bag”.

And then, the season happened.  Soriano was the unquestioned goat in the April 5 5-4 loss to Minnesota, a game in which the Yankees led 4-0 after seven innings.  When Soriano entered the game, a great many viewers likely assumed the game was, at that point, as good as won.  Soriano was lights-out as a reliever last year, and Rivera was looming for the ninth.   Game over, right?  Wrong!  Soriano finished the night surrendering 4 earned runs in just 0.2 innings of work, allowing the Twins to tie the game, and eventually win it in extras (Soriano was pulled by then).  Clearly, Soriano was not his usual self, missing location on almost every pitch and eventually walking three Twins batters.  This is a pitcher with a career 2.74 BB/9 (2.02 in 2010).  Simply stated, Soriano just doesn’t do that.  And yet he did.

What went wrong?  Without being able to credibly speak to Soriano’s health and well-being, it can only be assumed that it was an “off night”.  It may sound like a cop out, but that’s just something that happens from time to time.  Players aren’t always at their best, and with pitchers, the consequences can be dire.  Soriano did pitch in three of the Yankees first five games, so it’s possible that fatigue could have played a role.  It could be that that Twins, even with their collectively slumping offense, had a favorable scouting report on Soriano, one that allowed them to gain an advantage at the plate.  Whatever the case, Soriano found himself on the mound without his best stuff, and he ended up paying the price.

In a fantasy context this means almost nothing.  Here too, bad outings happen.  The real bad news for Soriano owners came during the cold months of winter, when Soriano’s signing all but obliterated his fantasy value (at least in standard leagues).  Sure, there are leagues in which middle relievers have value (holds, anyone?), but those leagues are still the exception and not the rule.  The real crime is that Soriano will likely rot behind the immortal Mariano Rivera for at least the next two full seasons, basically assuring that he’ll only be a legitimate fantasy asset in the occasional HLDs-league.  On the bright side, his lack of ownership will make it easier to stomach his occasional bullpen blow-up.  Right?

Damian Schaab is a senior writer for SportsGrumblings.com, and member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can hear his fantasy reflections on XM147/Sirius211 between 8 and 11 PM, EST every Saturday evening at a satellite radio near you. Also, do feel obligated to follow his misanthropic musings via Twitter @jsjournalism and, of course, right here at http://jockstrapjournalism.blogspot.com/

Rookie Pitcher Creams the Twinkies

Toronto rookie starter Kyle Drabek allowed one run on just one hit over seven innings versus the Minnesota Twins during his season debut on April 2.  Drabek actually took a no-hitter into the sixth inning, only to surrender a one-out single to Denard Span.  Drabek recovered by striking out Tsuyoshi Nishioka and inducing a Joe Mauer ground out.  It was, not to state the obvious, a stellar performance, one bordering on the masterful.  In fact, Drabek’s only real blemish was the three walks he surrendered.  It was a near-perfect beginning to the 2011 season for Drabek, who is finally living up to all the promise his pedigree would suggest.

Drabek, the son of former Major League pitcher and 1990 NL Cy Young Award winner Doug Drabek, was originally drafted as the 18^th overall pick in the 2006 draft by the Philadelphia Phillies.  The Phillies carefully groomed the young right-hander by allowing him to develop in the low minors before testing the waters at higher levels.  By 2009, Drabek was moving from A+ to AA and keeping pace with his contemporaries.  In 2009, following a trade to the Blue Jays (in the deal for Roy Halladay), Drabek pitched to a 14-9 record with a 2.94 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.  His 3.97 K/BB was his highest since rookie ball, and he showed signs of being Major League ready.

Drabek made his Major League debut last season going 0-3 with a 4.76 ERA and a 12/5 K/BB.  It’s a limited sample size to be certain, but even in limited use, Drabek showed an ability to strike big league hitters out at a rate very much in keeping with his minor league track record.  Drabek’s smattering of big league success in 2009 did little to prepare fans (and fantasy owners) for what was in store on April 2.  Further, it may be setting up fantasy owners to be disappointed.  While it’s possible that a top-15 prospect could burst on to the scene and dominate for an entire rookie season, the fact remains unlikely.  As was the case with Tina Yothers, growing pains are to be expected, especially with a pitcher that doesn’t have a superhuman K-rate.

Drabek is an interesting speculative add, especially in AL-only formats where he should be owned almost universally.  Fantasy owners may want to sit him against the more robust American League offenses (the Bostons, New Yorks, and Texases), and try the match-ups play early on.  Time will tell whether Drabek is rounding into a full-fledged rookie sensation, or (and this is more likely) he was simply a one-start wonder.  Stay tuned to Jockstrap Journalism and/or VH1 to follow the story.

Damian Schaab is a senior writer for SportsGrumblings.com, and member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can hear his fantasy reflections on XM147/Sirius211 between 8 and 11 PM, EST every Saturday evening at a satellite radio near you. Also, do feel obligated to follow his misanthropic musings via Twitter @jsjournalism and, of course, right here at http://jockstrapjournalism.blogspot.com/

Cruz Control

Texas Rangers outfielder Nelson Cruz became just the third Major League player to hit home runs in his team’s first four games to open the season, tying a record held by Willie Mays (Giants, 1971) and Mark McGuire (Cardinals, 1998).  Cruz hit the home run off Erik Bedard in the fourth inning of Monday’s game versus the Seattle Mariners.  Bedard is a story unto himself, but that is another story altogether.  The story of Nelson Cruz is also one filled with intrigue, drama, and danger.  Well, not so much danger in the literal sense, but for those fantasy owners looking to him for salvation, there are dangers aplenty.

Cruz was originally acquired by the Rangers from the Brewers along with Carlos Lee for Francisco Cordero, along with immortals Kevin Mench, and Laynce Nix. Obviously, Lee didn’t last long in a Rangers uniform, but the Rangers still look to have made out more than okay in that deal.  At least, that’s what the advantage of hindsight would have the baseball world believe.  At the time, the Brewers were in a bind, needing to find both a closer and a reasonable return for Carlos Lee, a player that was poised to depart via free agency following the season.  They accomplished both goals, short-term though they may have been.

It was once believed that Cruz might never find a place on a Major League roster due to the generally held notion that he was a AAAA-player—too good for the minors, but not quite ready for the big leagues.  Cruz’s 2008 minor league numbers clearly illustrated that he had nothing left to prove in AAA after batting .342 with 37 home runs and 99 RBIs.  Those numbers were good enough to win him the 2008 Pacific Coast League Most Valuable Player award, and open more than a few eyes with the big club.  Still, four previous attempts to launch Cruz’s career had failed, casting a cloud over his head.

He was finally given a chance to play every day in 2009 and rewarded the Rangers faith in him by turning in an All Star season.  He was named to the 2009 American League All Star team as an injury replacement for Torii Hunter (Angels), ironic though it may seem.  He finished 2009 batting .260 with 33 home runs and 20 stolen bases, but he played in just 128 games due to nagging injuries to his ankle and finger.  In fact, since becoming a Major League regular, Cruz hasn’t been limited by an inability to produce (especially at home), but by an inability to stay healthy.

Despite reaching the World Series, 2010 was another season filled with injuries and frustrations for Cruz.  While he batted a career-high .318, along with hitting 22 home runs and stealing 17 bases, Cruz lost 54 games due to lingering hamstring problems.  Cruz managed to play in just 108 games in 2010, failing to reach 400 at bats.  While his .950 OPS looks great on paper, Cruz’s fantasy owners still have a sour taste in their mouths wondering what may have been after seeing their star outfielder play in just 66% of the Rangers games.  Over a “full” season, Cruz owners were holding a loaded howitzer: 29 HR, 22 SB, 103 RBIs.  Seemingly, he’s more than capable of reaching those numbers on a year-to-year basis, if only health would permit it.

That type of potential production makes his torrid start to the 2011 season all the more enticing, as the prospects of what may lie ahead seem almost endless in both scope and magnitude.  His supporters are already getting carried away, as the endless comparisons to Mays and McGuire seem to indicate.  This is, after all, a 31 year old player entering just his third full season in the big leagues.  A late bloomer?  That would be an understatement.  The talent is there to be a special (fantasy) player, but one talent Cruz just does not seem to possess is health.  No, staying healthy isn’t just based in luck; clearly there’s a modicum of skill involved in being able to stay out of harm’s way—something Cruz has not yet shown a predilection toward.  Until he shows he can play 140 or more games, everyone will have to take the good (his 2011 HR binge) with the bad (the inevitability of DL-time).

Damian Schaab is a senior writer for SportsGrumblings.com, and member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can hear his fantasy reflections on XM147/Sirius211 between 8 and 11 PM, EST every Saturday evening at a satellite radio near you. Also, do feel obligated to follow his misanthropic musings via Twitter @jsjournalism and, of course, right here at http://jockstrapjournalism.blogspot.com/

Fighting for OF Playing Time in Philly

Domonic Brown, the top prospect in the Phillies organization, was set to begin the season starting in the outfield for Philadelphia, but a wrist injury has delayed his start to the season.  It’s a shame for Brown, as he’ll have to wait a while longer to showcase his immense talents.  His minor league track record clearly indicates that this is a player with considerable promise.  In 2010 alone, Brown batted .327 with 20 home runs and 117 stolen bases between AA and AAA.  While it may take some time for his power to catch up to big league pitching, there’s no reason to believe that Brown’s speed won’t immediately translate to top-flight production (hear that fantasy owners?).  In fact, analyst and prospect sycophant Bill James seems to believe Brown’s talents are already poised to threaten a 30/30 season [cough] crazy talk [cough].  Most scouts are still generally concerned with some obvious flaws (holes) in Brown’s swing.  His brief stay with the Phillies included a .210 batting average and strikeouts in more than 38% of his at bats, both clear indications that no prospect is a bona fide “can’t miss”.  Still, Philly fans and fantasy owners alike eagerly await his return.

In the meantime, the team is expected to use some combination of John Mayberry, Ben Francisco and even Ross Gload to pick up the slack.  Interestingly enough, these options aren’t as diminished as most would assume.  Circumstances are not as dire in Philadelphia (even with the Chase Utley injury) as many believe.  At least a couple off intriguing options avail themselves, even if they aren’t perfect—a fact that holds true both in Philadelphia and in fantasyland.

John Mayberry had an impressive spring, batting .294 with 5 home runs , 11 RBIs, and 4 steals—all numbers that look rather impressive projected out over a full fantasy season.  Alas, despite posting some decent minor league seasons, Mayberry has never hit to a high average, reaching a career high of .268 in 2008 (Rangers, AA).  He’s been hamstrung by a high strikeout rate (over 25% career) and hasn’t shown the ability to be more than a fourth or fifth outfielder.  At the big league level, the strikeout issue has been even more pronounced, with Mayberry whiffing 38.6% of the time.  That contact rate, or lack thereof, will likely prevent Mayberry from providing consistent fantasy output.

Ben Francisco possesses a similar skill set to Mayberry, but he’s proven himself to a greater degree at the Major League level, compiling 1225 plate appearances in the process.  Along the way, he’s put together some very useful stretches, even compiling a 15 HR, 14 SB season (2009).  Despite his obvious combination of power and speed, teams have been reticent to give Francisco a full-time job, whether it be with Cleveland, or with his current employers.  To this end, Francisco has never played in more than 126 games in any big league season.  However, projected over a full season, this is a player with a legitimate 20/20 ceiling, and deep fantasy league owners should be aware of this fact.  As a short term solution, fantasy fanatics and Philly Phanatics could do a lot worse than having Francisco roving the outfield.

Ross Gload, on the other hand, has no illusions of being an everyday player.  He too has never secured a job as a Major League regular, and has yet to reach 400 at bats in a given season.  That’s unlikely to change with his 35^th birthday just days away.  Gload’s main role will be that of pinch hitter while occasionally spelling Ryan Howard at first and roaming the outfield on occasion—similar to the role Matt Stairs played in 2009, albeit with less power potential and vastly inferior facial hair.

Damian Schaab is a senior writer for SportsGrumblings.com, and member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can hear his fantasy reflections on XM147/Sirius211 between 8 and 11 PM, EST every Saturday evening at a satellite radio near you. Also, do feel obligated to follow his misanthropic musings via Twitter @jsjournalism and, of course, right here at http://jockstrapjournalism.blogspot.com/

Cardinals Fans (and Holliday) Feeling Pains

It was reported today that the St. Louis Cardinals will again be beset by injury and the adversity it brings.  After already losing ace starting pitcher Adam Wainwright to season-ending Tommy John Surgery, and dealing with Chris Carpenter’s Spring Training injury scare, the team announced that outfielder Matt Holliday will undergo an appendectomy on Friday.  This will come as quite a surprise to fans (and fantasy owners) who watched as a presumably healthy Holliday went 3-for-4 on Thursday, including a go-ahead home run in the eighth inning of Thursday’s 5-3 loss to the San Diego Padres.

Undoubtedly, those that fantasize about baseball in a game playing context are left wondering how this will come to impact Holliday’s value.  The trite and sarcastic answer would be, negatively.  How negatively is a matter of medical interpretation, one that will ultimately be determined by Holliday’s physicians.  Those physicians will not only perform the procedure, but also monitor Holliday’s post-operative care.

Don’t forget, an appendectomy is the surgical removal of the appendix through the abdominal cavity.  If diagnosed quickly, as was apparently the case with Holliday, the procedure can be minimally invasive, or, as minimally invasive as dissecting one’s abdomen can be.  Can it be?  The procedure itself is a relatively low-risk one, so fans needn’t live in fear of Holliday’s imminent demise, and there’s no need to buy a funeral wreath (yet).  Recovery time is a mixed bag, one that varies from patient to patient.  Two to three weeks is typical and healthy people (i.e. All Star outfielders) profile more optimistically than unhealthy people, but nothing is certain.  That being said, fantasy owners should probably err on the side of caution and plan on finding an alternative for Holliday for at least 2-3 weeks.

How will the Cardinals (and fantasy owners) go about replacing Holliday?  Well, how would anyone go about replacing an All Star-caliber outfielder with a .318 AVG, .388 OBP, .544 SLG and 33.6 career WAR—by crossing their proverbial fingers and hoping for the best.  In this instance, the two crossed fingers are Jon Jay (not to be confused with the Governor of New York and President of the Continental Congress) and Allen Craig.  The Cardinals were impressed with Jay in Spring Training where he tied for the team lead in RBIs (14) after hitting .300 with a .359 OBP for the Cardinals in in 2010 over 323 plate appearances.  Craig batted .359 during a strong spring showing, also leading the team with 23 total hits.  Craig’s minor league career includes three different 20+ HR seasons, and he’s shown an ability to hit for a high average, reaching .320 or better in two consecutive AAA seasons in 2009 and 2010.

Other fantasy options include going outside the Cardinals organization and targeting OF-eligible players that are unowned in more than 50% leagues.  Athletics outfielder Coco Crisp comes to mind.  While he doesn’t possess Holliday’s power, his 30-steal potential can still be an asset to a fantasy lineup.  Further, Tyler Colvin of the Cubs may be an option for those in need of power.  While he hit just .254 in his 2010 rookie campaign, he also reached 20 HR with a .500 SLG—in just 358 at bats no less.  Crisp and Colvin are almost polar opposites in what they bring to the field, but in terms of fantasy value, they are actually fairly comparable.  Fantasy owners should let categorical need guide their hand in finding a suitable replacement for Holliday, then cross those fingers and hope for the best.

Damian Schaab is a senior writer for SportsGrumblings.com, and member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can hear his fantasy reflections on XM147/Sirius211 between 8 and 11 PM, EST every Saturday evening at a satellite radio near you. Also, do feel obligated to follow his misanthropic musings via Twitter @jsjournalism and, of course, right here at http://jockstrapjournalism.blogspot.com/