Don’t look now, but there just may be a Seattle Mariner that’s not afraid of making solid contact with baseballs. And, no, we’re not about to launch into a barrage of insults hurled in the general direction of soon-to-be ex-closer Brandon League (although that wouldn’t be without merit). No. Rather, we’re speaking (or writing) of one Justin Smoak, the young first baseman the M’s acquired in the Cliff Lee trade just a season ago. Considering that the going rate for this once top prospect was Lee (a bona fide ace), it’s not like Smoak was some kind of secret. Prospect aficionados have been enamored with Smoak since he was drafted by the Texas Rangers in 2008. Since then, he’s been fast-tracked to the big leagues as a potential impact bat, and while it’s taken him until 2011 to finally find his stride, it seems that Smoak may finally be living up to his potential.
His arriva, such as it is, couldn’t have come a moment sooner—not for the Mariners anyway. This is a team giving significant at bats to the likes of Miguel Olivo (.526 OPS), Brendan Ryan (.526 OPS), Chone Figgins (.576 OPS), and until his recent release for simply being himself, Milton M-Fin’ Bradley and his .218 batting average. Murderer’s Row this ain’t. Sure, Safeco Field isn’t exactly a launching pad either, ranking 29th overall in scoring and home runs in 2010 (the last full year of date). Still, one has to realize that much of the diminished scoring has to do with the home team’s sickening inability to score runs in any way, shape, or form. 2011 has been a bit better in Seattle, and that may actually have something to do with the emergence of Justin Smoak.
Actually, that’s a bit optimistic, but his development has been pretty impressive. Already, Smoak has shown signs of being every bit the hitter the Mariners were hoping he’d become when they traded for his services a season ago. At the time of the trade in 2010, Smoak was hitting just .209 with a .670 OPS for the Rangers—no easy task for someone playing half his games in that hitter-friendly Ballpark at Arlington. The move to the Pacific Northwest didn’t treat Smoak much better, and why would it? As previously discussed, Safeco Field is hard on hitters, especially rookies trying to learn on the job. Ultimately, Smoak’s 2010 final stats left a lot to be desired: .218 AVG, .307 OBP, and .371 SLG.
His .284 batting average is a significant improvement over his rookie showing. His OBP (.397) and SLG (.505) indicate similar growth in both pitch recognition and power potential. In this way, 2011 looks like Smoak’s coming out party, and not in a YMCA-type way. While his current 1.1 WAR doesn’t really portend of a game-changer at first, it too is an improvement over his rookie season. A .333 BABIP is right on the cusp of sustainability, so it’s difficult to simply call Smoak “lucky”. Rather, it seems possible, perhaps even probable, that this is part of the natural progression of a much ballyhooed ballplayer, finally coming into his own, quite possibly with much more to come.
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