The Show Must Go On...

We’ve seen look-alikes before.  Joe Maddon of the Tampa Bay Rays had one, and he rose to a certain amount of fame, albeit just locally and briefly.  It seems that the city of Seattle now has a doppelganger of its own to deal with.  There’s been an Ichiro Suzuki impersonator running amok at Safeco Field, posing with adoring fans and even obliging autograph requests from time to time.

He’s been to numerous games, in full Mariners regalia, including that all too famous number 51 jersey, high socks and just the right curvature to his M’s cap atop his head—a head that bears an uncanny resemblance to the 10-time All-Star, right down to the trademark facial hair.  It’s a pretty amazing resemblance, really.  He was even removed from a Mariners game for interfering with a live ball during the course of a game during an August 3 contest against the Oakland Athletics.  Fans were hard on the mimicking Mariner as security escorted him from the game, but what most failed to realize is that this isn’t the first time this copycat has involved himself on the field of play.  In fact, he’s been on the field a great deal this season.

A quick glance at the numbers reveals what some have suspected for most of the season—that Ichiro Suzuki has vanished.  It seems almost unthinkable, but the stats don’t lie.  The real Ichiro was a .331 career hitter entering the 2011 season, but this sad approximation is currently hitting just .264.  In fact, every shred of statistical evidence supports the notion that Ichiro (the player, the icon, the legend) has been replaced by a stand-in.  That stand in has a 186-point difference in OPS, and he’s certainly not going to reach 200 hits, something the real Ichiro could have done in his sleep.  Alas, it’s hard to expect the understudy to perform as well as the star listed on the marquee.  While the double looks, dresses, and moves like the leading man, there are palpable differences (like a 61-point drop in OBP or 117-point drop in SLG) that even the most casual observer can detect.  This charlatan still has some baseball talent (28 steals), but he hasn’t managed to fool everyone. 

The fans noticed, and so too did opposing managers.  The phony Ichiro failed to earn an All-Star nod for the first time since arriving in the Major Leagues, perhaps a turning point in his career.  It’s hard to say if and when the real Ichiro will return to the game.  If he does, will he ever be the same player that electrified fans for the past decade with hit after game-changing hit?  Will he be able to recapture the aura he once possessed?  Will he continue to make a run at what once seemed like a clear path to the Hall of Fame? For now, the show must go on, even without one of the game’s brightest stars.

Rangers Bolster the Bullpen at the Deadline

If not for the superior pitching of the San Francisco Giants and some timely hitting by Cody Ross (and Co.), the Texas Rangers would have won a World Series in 2010.  That alone could have been enough of an accomplishment to placate fans for at least a few seasons.  However, management refused to rest on its laurels, realizing that the team’s 61-48 record in 2011 places them in a position to make another playoff (World Series?) run.  That realization led to a couple of noteworthy deadline deals to bolster the Rangers bullpen, perhaps the most glaring weakness on an otherwise strong Texas squad.  With a collective ERA of 4.42, the Rangers bullpen ranked 11^th in the American League.  Because of two notable transactions, that should no longer be an issue.

In one deal, the team acquired Mike Adams, formerly off the Padres, a pitcher who is 3-1 on the year with a 1.12 ERA and 0.73 WHIP and was third in baseball with 23 holds at the time of the trade.  In fact, since joining the Padres, Adams went 9-5 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 217 innings.  If that weren’t enough, he carried a 4.08 K/BB over that span, striking out 241 while walking just 59 (just 9 BB in 48 IP in 2011).  With all the trade rumors surrounding closer extraordinaire Heath Bell, many baseball executives felt Adams was the more valuable arm, both in terms of dollars and production.  Based on the available evidence, they may very well have been correct; Nolan Ryan and the Rangers brass seem to think so.

In another, the Rangers obtained the services of Koji Uehara from the Baltimore Orioles.   Despite his success the last two years, Uehara has been one of the more unsung bullpen heroes in baseball.  Since becoming a reliever full-time in 2010, he’s done nothing but dominate.  As the primary set-up man and sometimes closer in Baltimore, Uehara has compiled an impressive resume.  His 2.25 ERA and 0.82 WHIP would impress anyone, but it’s his 9.15 K/9 over that span that really defines his success.  In 92 innings, Uehara amassed 119 strikeouts, all while pitching in the brutal climate that is the American League East.  Not only does he pitch well, he pitched well against top-flight competition in high-leverage situations.  One might even make the argument that he’s, well, “clutch”.

In the process, the Rangers rid themselves of 4-A superstar Chris Davis, a player that has shown time and time again that he’s just too talented for triple-A and simply not quite ready for prime time in the big leagues.  He has all the power in the world, but with a ridiculous strikeout rate (31.7% for his career) and inability to hit big league pitching, well, his upside is that of new Orioles teammate Mark Reynolds.  Frankly, when your upside is that of one of the most frustrating players the game has seen in recent years (Reynolds), it’s hard to see his departure is a tragic loss.  Any way you slice it, Davis’ greatest asset to the Rangers was as a trade chip, and that’s just what happened.  Having to include pitcher Tommy Hunter (4.36 career ERA) was of little consequence given all that’s at stake for the Rangers.

The Rangers now have three of the most dominant relief pitchers in the game today anchoring their bullpen.  Let’s not forget that they still have 2010 AL Rookie of the Year Neftali Feliz to close out games at the back end.  The problem with Feliz is that he’s regressed mightily this season.  His K/9 fell from 9.2 in 2010 to just 6.3 in 2011.  His BB/9 has basically doubled too, jumping from 2.34 to 4.66.  His inability to find the plate has forced manager Ron Washington to lose even more hair—something he can ill afford to do.  Should he struggle in the future, there are now two highly capable arms (statistically superior ones too) to take over should circumstances dictate.  The suggestions that the additions of Adams and Uehara have ostensibly shortened every Rangers game to a six-inning contest is a bit of an overstatement, but it’s patently obvious that they are a better team today than they before the July 31 trade deadline.

Looking for Help at the Not-So-Hot Corner

To begin the season, third base was already looking particularly thin, especially when you looked past the elite tier: Evan Longoria, David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman and even Alex Rodriguez.  Interestingly enough, the one thing each member of that quartet has in common is that every one of them has sustained a major injury this year—as defined by time lost to the DL.  Longoria was absent from April 3 until May 33, and didn’t hit his first home run until May 7.  David Wright hasn’t played now since May 15, after sustaining a [gulp] broken back (speaking of serious injuries).  Zimmerman, slowly but surely having his career partially defined by his penchant for injuries was out from the second week of April until June 14, and he’s still hitting just .240 with 5 HR (maybe he’s still not completely healthy).  And everyone’s favorite cornerstone, A-Rod, just went on the 15-day DL on July 8 following knee surgery and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks.  All that DL time just added injury to insult, making it nearly impossible for fantasy owners to find a productive bat at the hot corner.

One intriguing option entering the year was Pedro Alvarez of the Pittsburg Pirates.  The Pirates seemed on the verge of finally improving (and improve they certainly have), but it was believed that Alvarez was going to have to have a big offensive season for that to happen.  After hitting 29 home runs between the big leagues and minors in 2010 (16 with Pittsburgh), it seemed like he was ready for a breakout season in 2011.  Not counting Jose Bautista (who was ranked as an outfielder), Alvarez seemed as capable of anyone (Mark Reynolds included) to hit 40 bombs while playing third.  He hasn’t lived up to his potential.  In 36 disappointing big league games this season, Alvarez hit just .208 with two (TWO?!?!?!) home runs.  His OBP still sits at a miserable .283, and it took a May 18 home run to finally push his SLG over .300.  That translates to a .587 OPS—a clear indication that something (some things, plural) was amiss.  In fact, Alvarez has been so bad this year that the Pirates had no recourse but to send him back to AAA following an injury off his own (really, every 3B in baseball has been hurt).  That’s where he currently resides, hoping to earn another shot with the perplexingly pugnacious Pirates.

The silver lining, if there is one, is that Alvarez is finally hitting in Indianapolis.  In 13 AAA games, Alvarez is hitting .370 with a .444 OBP and .543 SLG—numbers that suggest he’s finally healthy. Granted, it’s just 138 plate appearances, but his 2 home runs, 12 runs, and 10 RBIs are all positive signs.  A little more seasoning and he’s almost certain to return to the big club.  It’s not like Brandon Wood (talk about failed prospects) and his .209 batting average or .619 OPS present insurmountable obstacles for Alvarez to return.  Interestingly enough, a power bat seems to be the one missing ingredient for Pittsburgh to continue their surprising playoff push.  They’ve been linked in trade rumors to a few names, including Josh Willingham and Carlos Pena.  However, Alvarez might be able to offer a boost with zero cost to the team.  The potential cost to fantasy owners would be almost as minimal.  It’s not like he not widely available on the waiver wire, and considering the dearth of healthy, productive third basemen, he might not be a terrible speculative add.

The Superman of Walks

Look…up in the sky.  It’s a bird.  It’s a plane.  It’s another base on balls.  This must mark the impending return of the enigmatic Jonathan Sanchez to the Giants rotation.  Sanchez has been on the 15-day DL since June 25 with left biceps tendinitis [cough] general suckiness [cough], and clearly the team has missed his 3.81 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.  Seriously, replacing that 5.92 BB/9 must have been a daunting task indeed.  Hell, there isn’t a qualified starter with a worse BB/9 than Sanchez.  The saving grace is that Sanchez hasn’t pitched enough innings to qualify for that dubious title, although he does still lead the NL in total walks despite pitching just 89.2 innings.  Way…to…go. [quiet applause]

Could it be that Sanchez’ return has at least a little something to do with Barry Zito having a very Barry Zito-esque start—surrendering 8 ER in just 3.2 IP on July 16?  Interestingly enough, Zito had been pitching fairly well leading up to that game, lowering his 2011 ERA to 3.18 in the process.  It really seemed like the former Cy Young Award winner might be poised for yet another strong start too.  After all, the chips were stacked in his favor: a terrible Padres lineup, at PETCO Park, a few extra days rest to heal anything that might be ailing him.  Talk about a recipe for success.  The missing ingredient?  When Barry Zito is the chef, well, anything is possible.  The end result was nothing less than a crap sandwich.  And, everyone knows what a crap sandwich tastes like even topped with capicola.

The end result is that the Giants are now (re)turning to chaos incarnate, Jonathan Sanchez in the hopes that 8 BB games are less damaging to a team’s success than 8 ER games.  While that seems like a logical tradeoff, in the end there’s really no guarantee that the two stat-lines are mutually exclusive.  The funny thing is the team might be correct in their thinking on this one.  Despite his inability to pitch more than six innings (something Sanchez has done only three times in 2011), and his inability to limit free passes, Sanchez seldom surrenders a lot of earned runs.  In fact, Sanchez has given up more than 3 ER only twice all season, hence the “respectable” ERA.  In the end, it’s seldom going to be pretty (often quite ugly), but Sanchez normally gives that Giants at least a fighting chance when it comes to winning ballgames.

The Slow and Steady Death of Grady Sizemore

Monday, July 18: The day Grady Sizemore’s career ended.  No, he didn’t die in a fire or get mauled by a bear (although that would be quite the news story).  Sizemore reinjured his surgically repaired knee sliding into second base during a July 17 game against the Baltimore Orioles.  This is the same knee he had surgically “repaired” in 2010 (good ole microfracture), an injury that has made the once vaunted outfielder to look like a shadow of his former self. 

It’s not like there’s a laundry list of baseball players that have successfully returned from microfracture surgery.  It’s a procedure just recently came into being in the 1980s and really didn’t gain a footing in the sports science until that later part of the 1990s.  The sports world is more familiar with the procedure in a basketball context, including such notable patients as Amar’e Stoudemire, Jason Kidd, Tracy McGrady, and Greg Oden.  That short list includes some successes and tragic failures.  While we’ve seen a handful of full recoveries, the list of players that continue to experience symptoms and/or fail to recover altogether is long and punctuated by exasperation.  McGrady was half the man he used to be after his procedure(s), and is still unable to stay on the court for more than a few games at a time.  With Oden, a promising career may have come to a crashing end before it ever had a chance to take flight.

With Sizemore, it’s hard to imagine him every recovering to the point where he’s back to being, well, Grady Sizemore.  Don’t forget, Sizemore was going to be baseball’s next superstar, with a rare combination of power, speed and charisma.  He was a three time All Star and the cornerstone of the Indians offense.  A 30-30 player as recently as 2008 (33 HR, 38 SB), Sizemore has just 17 steals in his last 200 games over the course of the last three seasons and is now barely a threat to run.  In 61 games in 2011, he hasn’t managed to swipe a single bag, being thrown out twice.  While he has hit 28 home runs over that same span, his power too has clearly diminished, with a slugging % of .426 compared to a .491 mark through the first five years of his career.  And while he was only a .279 hitter before the injury bug started to take its toll, he’s managed just a .239 AVG since—a below-replacement level outfielder in almost every sense.

Sustaining further injury to an already ailing knee will only serve to exacerbate an already tenuous situation and one that will force the Cleveland Indians to make a difficult decision as a franchise.  Sizemore has an $8.5 million team option ($500k buyout), and that number doesn’t seem appropriate for a player with as much obvious downside as Sizemore offers.  The questions surrounding Sizemore’s future are varied.  If not Cleveland, where?  Assuming Sizemore is unable to return to form (and that certainly seems to be the case), what type of player will he be and how much is that player worth on the open market?

Verlander and That Next Level S**t

Although Detroit’s Justin Verlander has won at least 17 games on four different occasions, he’s never won 20 games in any season, and that must be tearing him up inside.  Why else would he be taking his already dominant game to the proverbial next level while already making it half way to 20 in 2011?  Oh, he may say publicly that 20 is just a number and that it’s all about team wins, because, well, that’s what he’s supposed to say.  He’ll also probably recite chapter of verse from the big book of baseball clichés, talking about giving it 110%, making pitches, hitting spots, and blah, blah, blah…

Make no mistake, Justin Verlander hasn’t been worried about hitting his spots since his BB/9 was approaching 4.00—way back in 2008, and even then he was still mowing down the competition with the greatest of ease.  It’s even easier now, or, that’s what the numbers suggest.  Verlander has his BB/9 down to a career-best 1.89, nearly one full walk lower than his career average.  With an average velocity that challenges any pitcher in the game, he’s been consistently touching triple digits into the eighth and ninth innings.  No, his 8.67 K/9 isn’t the best of his career, but he’s still a strikeout machine ranking second overall in baseball with 124 whiffs.   As a result of all those missed bats is an ERA of 2.38, the lowest such mark of his accomplished career.  Sure, that number may be aided by a .216 opponent’s BABIP, but when Verlander’s throwing balls that even the best hitters in the game can’t touch, you have to start to wonder just how much luck is influencing his stats, if at all.  

June has been just a little bit silly for Verlander: 5-0 with a 0.86 ERA, 0.62 WHIP and a 48:4 K:BB.  He’s had three different games of 10 or more strikeouts, including a season-high 14 just the other day.  This is a guy who’s only surrendered 22 hits in 42.0 innings pitched, meaning the opposition seldom has even a chance to score against him.  The only blemish against the Tiger ace this month has been the two home runs he’s yielded, one to Gordon Beckham (at Chicago) and another to Ty Wiggington (in Colorado)—both in launching-pad environs.  Hell, if you check the calendar, Verlander hasn’t had anything close to a bad start since May 24 where he gave up six earned to Tampa Bay.  Further, Verlander’s last loss came way back on April 27 against Seattle, a full 12 starts ago.  Right now, he’s simply dialed in.

He’s so dialed in, in fact, that it’s pretty difficult to point to another American League pitcher with even an outside chance at outdueling Verlander for this year’s Cy Young Award.  If the vote were cast today, he’d win in a landslide, almost as though he’d run uncontested.  After all, he’s currently fourth in the league in ERA, tops in quality starts, tops in WHIP, tops in Ks, all with the most innings pitched.  Really, the list goes on and on.  And those 10 wins are also tied for the league lead—exactly half way to that vaunted 20-win mark, something the Cy Young Award voting-types are sure to notice.  It’s hardly a lock for Verlander.  After all, there’s still half a season to go.  Still, he’s pitched so well to this point that he could miss some time (Injury?  Paternity?) and still finish squarely in the top-5.

For now, baseball fans should just sit back and enjoy the ride.  It’s been fun already, and with the way June has gone, well, it might be a season for the ages.

Taking a Leap with Cole Hamels

Has anyone taken the time to notice that perhaps the least heralded member of the Philadelphia Phillies vaunted rotation might actually be their best performing pitcher right now?  Well, Jockstrap Journalism noticed.  That’s right, people (and marine mammals)…midway through June, Cole Hamels’ numbers a hold their own against any pitcher in the National League, even the other Phillies.  Right now, Hamels is 9-2 with a 2.49 ERA and 0.92 WHIP—numbers that have him in the earliest of early runnings for National League Cy Young Award.

As the weather has warmed, so too has Hamels.  He’s 2-0 with a 0.78 ERA and 0.61 WHIP so far in the month of June, and Hamels hasn’t lost a start since the beginning of May—that’s more than a month for those of you that are otherwise calendar deprived.  We live in difficult times, cast adrift in a world devoid of calendars and maps (thanks, South Carolina).  Even without access to these modern amenities, Hamels seems to have found his way, having fully righted his ship after an appalling start to the season that left him saddled with a 20.25 ERA after one start.  Yah, he seems to have recovered just fine.

Can he sustain this level of success over a full season?  Well, his FIP (2.28) and xFIP (2.51) both say, “why the hell not?”  Hamels is touting an 8.94 K/9, slightly better than his career mark, and he’s cut his walks to a career-best 1.75 BB/9. When the word “career” starts appearing with abundant frequency in order to irradiate, it may in fact be an indicator that a career year is developing.  This could legitimately be Hamels’ way of taking a run at something special.