Dawning of a New Era for Cubs?

Aramis Ramirez, a fixture at third base for the Cubs since he arrived in a trade with the Pittsburgh Pirates during the 2003 season, has informed the team that he will declare for free agency following the season.  In one sense, it’s a big loss for the Cubs.  Having stability at one position for so long has allowed the team to focus on other needs.  Sadly, many of their plans in that regard have fallen flat (see: the Alfonso Soriano signing).  Still, the team always seemed to have the question of who’s on third answered before anyone even bothered to ask it, and there was always value in certainty.  Another certainty, of course, has been the production Ramirez offered.

The pedigree is certainly there for Ramirez.   He’s  been one of the more productive third basemen in baseball for the past decade.  Many forget he was a solid contributor for Pittsburgh before his penchant for laziness prompted the team to ship him to Chicago for next to nothing.  He originally came over with outfielder Kenny Lofton for a “prospects” that included the likes of Matt Burback, Jose Hernandez and a player to be named later (Bobby Hill).    Since then, Ramirez has reached at least 25 home runs in seven of his eight seasons with the Cubs, leading the team twice in that department.  He also led the team in RBIs on five different occasions.  His 238 home runs are sixth on the Cubs all-time list, and Ramirez is also third all-time in slugging percentage (.531), trailing Sammy Sosa and Hack Wilson.

As one of the top hitting third basemen available in an otherwise weak free agent class, Ramirez figures to be paid, and paid well.  Considering he’s already stated publically that “I think I can play three more years”, it’s hard to imagine Ramirez garnering anything longer.  Sure, it’s a possibility that someone in an act of desperation might extend themselves beyond three years (age 36 for Ramirez), but that would smack of something only a team like the Cubs might do.

While the absence of Ramirez’s bat in the lineup will be seen by most as a significant loss, it could actually provide the team with some much needed flexibility.  It might also prompt the new GM (whomever that may be) to finally embrace the rebuilding plan the Cubs so desperately need.  Despite a few burdensome contracts that remain (Soriano and Carlos Zambrano come to mind), management desperately needs to realize that fielding a competitive team is well out of reach.  Signing an expensive free agent like Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder would make headlines, but it would further limit the financial flexibility of a team already hampered by poor fiscal decisions.  Moving in the opposite direction, and without the likes of Aramis Ramirez, is a step in the right direction.

Jered Weaver: The Deep End of the Gene Pool

Remember how Jeff Weaver was, or, was going to be?  As an up and coming Tigers pitcher, it seemed like the sky was the limit for Weaver.  Well, maybe not the sky, because those Tiger teams of the early 2000s weren’t exactly taking the world by storm, and Weaver’s W/L record always reflected that fact. Weaver never had a winning season for the Tigers, despite putting together some downright dominant stretches.  He was eventually traded to the Yankees (where he didn’t fare much better) and then bounced around between a few organizations, including mostly the Mariners and Dodgers.  Assuming Weaver is finished (and it looks like he is), his career record will stand at 104-119, the end result of pitching to a 4.71 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.  Also, a large part of what stunted Weaver’s success was his inability to generate strikeouts despite having pretty good “stuff”.  His career 5.94 K/9 doesn’t exactly bring back memories of Nolan Ryan.

It would seem that all the real pitching talent in the family fell to Jeff’s younger brother Jered—you know, the one that just signed that $85 million contract with the Angels.  He’s actually pretty damn good.  Five years in the league, and Jered was already a five-time double-digit winner, including a 16-8 season in 2009.  Like his brother, Jered never gave up too many free passes, as evidenced by his career 2.44 BB/9.  Unlike his brother, however, Jered didn’t pitch to contact so much, and wasn’t afraid to send a hitter back to the bench shaking his head (career 7.78 K/9).  Those extra two strikeouts per game are the main difference between the brothers, but certainly not the only one.

While analysts were always waiting (often impatiently) for older brother Jeff to take that proverbial next step, younger brother Jered was able to do it—in a big way too.  In fact, for those that have been paying attention to the 2011 season, he’s been doing it this year.   Jered is 14-6 with a 2.10 ERA and 0.97 WHIP and the true ace of a very solid Angels starting staff.  And, knowing full-well what they had, the team rewarded him with that big, fat contract.

Funny thing though, there are a lot of people questioning Weavers decision to settle for so little, given the recent contract developments for frontline starters recently.  Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia are all basically set for life.  And while the average Joe might not be able to even fathom having $85 million in the bank, it’s a far cry from what those aforementioned mound aces are bringing home.  Lee is averaging $24 million a season and Sabathia is scraping by at $23 mil. per.    Let’s not forget that Johan Santana is making just under $23 million not to pitch for the Mets in 2011, and possibly never again.  But, therein lies the motivation for Weaver to cash in now—volatility.  How long before Weaver feels his first real ache, pain, or strain?  How long before he finds himself on the DL for an extended period of time?  How long before he spends a summer in the waiting room of Dr. James Andrews?  Or, how long before his electric stuff simply dries up, preventing him from being an effective Major League starter (like his brother before him)?

Colorado's Very Rocky Rotation

In a deal that smacks of desperation (pitcher’s neck broken by a batted ball-type desperation), the Rockies signed Kevin Millwood.  Millwood spent most of the 2011 season pitching in the Boston Red Sox system, although calling it “pitching” might be an overestimation.  In his 16 minor league games (Red Sox and Yankees), Millwood has gone 7-2, almost in spite of himself.  He’s pitched to a 4.32 ERA while posting a 7.6 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9—numbers that don’t seem to portend of future success.

Despite having posted some very good seasons early in his career, Millwood is just not a big league pitcher any more.  The last time he posted a K/9 above 7.0 was way back in 2004.  Since then, he’s averaged 6.4 K/9 over six seasons, during which time he’s also pitched to a 61-73 record, 4.37 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, making Millwood an average pitcher at best.  The past four seasons, however, Millwood’s been even worse, pitching to a 4.73 ERA and 1.51 WHIP—numbers that would get him released from anyone’s fantasy team, and from every Major League team as luck would have it.  There’s a reason he hasn’t pitched at the big league level this season—he’s just not good enough.

Alas, here’s the door, slightly ajar, mostly because Juan Nicasio is out for the remainder of the season after suffering a broken vertebra in his neck.  IT’s a scary injury to be certain, but all indications are that Nicasio is doing well following a surgery to address the injury.  Coupled with the departure of staff ace Ubaldo Jimenez (traded to Cleveland), the Rockies are terribly thin in their rotation.  Don’t forget, they also lost Jorge De La Rosa to Tommy John surgery on June 3.  So, that’s the bad news.

The infinitely worse news is that the team somehow feels that Kevin Millwood might be an upgrade over whatever they have going right now.  Currently, the Rockies rotation includes Jhoulys Chacin, Aaron Cook, Jason Hammel, and Esmil Rogers.  That’s right, just when it seems like every big league team is contemplating a 6-man rotation, the Rockies only have four starters—total.  And to think that entering the season the Rockies looked as though their rotation might actually be their strength.  That is no longer the case.  In fact, inking Millwood clearly signals that at 53-62 the team is simply hoping to finish the 2011 season without fate interceding and claiming yet another starter.  If you’re looking for some levity in this otherwise grim ordeal, the starting pitching situation in Colorado does feel a little bit like the drummer situation in Spinal Tap, doesn’t it?

The Show Must Go On...

We’ve seen look-alikes before.  Joe Maddon of the Tampa Bay Rays had one, and he rose to a certain amount of fame, albeit just locally and briefly.  It seems that the city of Seattle now has a doppelganger of its own to deal with.  There’s been an Ichiro Suzuki impersonator running amok at Safeco Field, posing with adoring fans and even obliging autograph requests from time to time.

He’s been to numerous games, in full Mariners regalia, including that all too famous number 51 jersey, high socks and just the right curvature to his M’s cap atop his head—a head that bears an uncanny resemblance to the 10-time All-Star, right down to the trademark facial hair.  It’s a pretty amazing resemblance, really.  He was even removed from a Mariners game for interfering with a live ball during the course of a game during an August 3 contest against the Oakland Athletics.  Fans were hard on the mimicking Mariner as security escorted him from the game, but what most failed to realize is that this isn’t the first time this copycat has involved himself on the field of play.  In fact, he’s been on the field a great deal this season.

A quick glance at the numbers reveals what some have suspected for most of the season—that Ichiro Suzuki has vanished.  It seems almost unthinkable, but the stats don’t lie.  The real Ichiro was a .331 career hitter entering the 2011 season, but this sad approximation is currently hitting just .264.  In fact, every shred of statistical evidence supports the notion that Ichiro (the player, the icon, the legend) has been replaced by a stand-in.  That stand in has a 186-point difference in OPS, and he’s certainly not going to reach 200 hits, something the real Ichiro could have done in his sleep.  Alas, it’s hard to expect the understudy to perform as well as the star listed on the marquee.  While the double looks, dresses, and moves like the leading man, there are palpable differences (like a 61-point drop in OBP or 117-point drop in SLG) that even the most casual observer can detect.  This charlatan still has some baseball talent (28 steals), but he hasn’t managed to fool everyone. 

The fans noticed, and so too did opposing managers.  The phony Ichiro failed to earn an All-Star nod for the first time since arriving in the Major Leagues, perhaps a turning point in his career.  It’s hard to say if and when the real Ichiro will return to the game.  If he does, will he ever be the same player that electrified fans for the past decade with hit after game-changing hit?  Will he be able to recapture the aura he once possessed?  Will he continue to make a run at what once seemed like a clear path to the Hall of Fame? For now, the show must go on, even without one of the game’s brightest stars.

Verlander and That Next Level S**t

Although Detroit’s Justin Verlander has won at least 17 games on four different occasions, he’s never won 20 games in any season, and that must be tearing him up inside.  Why else would he be taking his already dominant game to the proverbial next level while already making it half way to 20 in 2011?  Oh, he may say publicly that 20 is just a number and that it’s all about team wins, because, well, that’s what he’s supposed to say.  He’ll also probably recite chapter of verse from the big book of baseball clichés, talking about giving it 110%, making pitches, hitting spots, and blah, blah, blah…

Make no mistake, Justin Verlander hasn’t been worried about hitting his spots since his BB/9 was approaching 4.00—way back in 2008, and even then he was still mowing down the competition with the greatest of ease.  It’s even easier now, or, that’s what the numbers suggest.  Verlander has his BB/9 down to a career-best 1.89, nearly one full walk lower than his career average.  With an average velocity that challenges any pitcher in the game, he’s been consistently touching triple digits into the eighth and ninth innings.  No, his 8.67 K/9 isn’t the best of his career, but he’s still a strikeout machine ranking second overall in baseball with 124 whiffs.   As a result of all those missed bats is an ERA of 2.38, the lowest such mark of his accomplished career.  Sure, that number may be aided by a .216 opponent’s BABIP, but when Verlander’s throwing balls that even the best hitters in the game can’t touch, you have to start to wonder just how much luck is influencing his stats, if at all.  

June has been just a little bit silly for Verlander: 5-0 with a 0.86 ERA, 0.62 WHIP and a 48:4 K:BB.  He’s had three different games of 10 or more strikeouts, including a season-high 14 just the other day.  This is a guy who’s only surrendered 22 hits in 42.0 innings pitched, meaning the opposition seldom has even a chance to score against him.  The only blemish against the Tiger ace this month has been the two home runs he’s yielded, one to Gordon Beckham (at Chicago) and another to Ty Wiggington (in Colorado)—both in launching-pad environs.  Hell, if you check the calendar, Verlander hasn’t had anything close to a bad start since May 24 where he gave up six earned to Tampa Bay.  Further, Verlander’s last loss came way back on April 27 against Seattle, a full 12 starts ago.  Right now, he’s simply dialed in.

He’s so dialed in, in fact, that it’s pretty difficult to point to another American League pitcher with even an outside chance at outdueling Verlander for this year’s Cy Young Award.  If the vote were cast today, he’d win in a landslide, almost as though he’d run uncontested.  After all, he’s currently fourth in the league in ERA, tops in quality starts, tops in WHIP, tops in Ks, all with the most innings pitched.  Really, the list goes on and on.  And those 10 wins are also tied for the league lead—exactly half way to that vaunted 20-win mark, something the Cy Young Award voting-types are sure to notice.  It’s hardly a lock for Verlander.  After all, there’s still half a season to go.  Still, he’s pitched so well to this point that he could miss some time (Injury?  Paternity?) and still finish squarely in the top-5.

For now, baseball fans should just sit back and enjoy the ride.  It’s been fun already, and with the way June has gone, well, it might be a season for the ages.

Taking a Leap with Cole Hamels

Has anyone taken the time to notice that perhaps the least heralded member of the Philadelphia Phillies vaunted rotation might actually be their best performing pitcher right now?  Well, Jockstrap Journalism noticed.  That’s right, people (and marine mammals)…midway through June, Cole Hamels’ numbers a hold their own against any pitcher in the National League, even the other Phillies.  Right now, Hamels is 9-2 with a 2.49 ERA and 0.92 WHIP—numbers that have him in the earliest of early runnings for National League Cy Young Award.

As the weather has warmed, so too has Hamels.  He’s 2-0 with a 0.78 ERA and 0.61 WHIP so far in the month of June, and Hamels hasn’t lost a start since the beginning of May—that’s more than a month for those of you that are otherwise calendar deprived.  We live in difficult times, cast adrift in a world devoid of calendars and maps (thanks, South Carolina).  Even without access to these modern amenities, Hamels seems to have found his way, having fully righted his ship after an appalling start to the season that left him saddled with a 20.25 ERA after one start.  Yah, he seems to have recovered just fine.

Can he sustain this level of success over a full season?  Well, his FIP (2.28) and xFIP (2.51) both say, “why the hell not?”  Hamels is touting an 8.94 K/9, slightly better than his career mark, and he’s cut his walks to a career-best 1.75 BB/9. When the word “career” starts appearing with abundant frequency in order to irradiate, it may in fact be an indicator that a career year is developing.  This could legitimately be Hamels’ way of taking a run at something special.

To the Suddenly Optimistic Twins Fan

It may be foolish to point this out, but the Minnesota Twins are suddenly the hottest team in baseball.  That’s right, the last place Minnesota Twins…them.  Oh, for sure, any time a team goes 7-1 over any stretch, you have to stand up and take notice.  It’s especially noteworthy when the team in question has been the worst team in the game for most of the season.  With Houston and Oakland also struggling mightily, the Twins failings still stood out amidst lofty expectations to begin the season.  It’s been a long hard road for Minnesota.

Okay people, before your noodles get all excited over the Twins recent run of success, do be aware that six of those wins came against Kansas City (26-36) and a rapidly retreating Cleveland team that’s gone 4-11 over their past 15 games.  Oh, sure, the Indians are still 34-26 and are the creme de la crap that is the American League Central.  Make no mistake, however, these is just not the same Indians team that was lengths in front of the pack to begin the year.  As for the Royals, well, they’re the friggin’ Royals, okay?  They have lots of young and exciting players making their way to the Major Leagues at this very moment, but their glory days still lie past the horizon.

Let’s not forget, too, that the Twins are still dead last in the whole American League, even after their recent success (.387).  This is a team with the worst run differential in all of baseball (-70), meaning their win probability is as embarrassing as their actual won-lost record.  And the hits just keep on coming.  The Twins team OBP (.301) ranks next to last in baseball, with only the Mariners turning in a worse mark.  Sadly, their team SLG (.349) isn’t much better, ranking 27^th, the exact same ranking as their staff ERA.  This should tell you that the Twins struggles aren’t simply a matter of hitting, or lack thereof.  Their pitching staff ranks dead last in the game in total strikeouts (355).  Sure, the Twins as an organization teach their hurlers to pitch to contact, but it’s working a little too well, for the opposition anyway.

Some will be quick to point out that a lot of the Twins struggles can be traced to their inability to field a healthy team.  It’s a valid point; it really is.  No, really.  As if this team wasn’t already beset by injuries, with the likes of Joe Mauer, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Joe Nathan, Jim Thome, Glen Perkins, and Kevin Slowey all on the disabled list in some capacity, the Twins just placed Denard Span on the 7-day DL with a concussion.  That’s not good news—not for Span and not for his team.  Ask Morneau how impactful concussion symptoms can be, influencing balance, depth perception, and vision—all things that are pretty important when it comes to playing baseball.  So, yah, it’s really that bad.

Three-time AL batting champion, Joe Mauer, is on the verge of returning as both he and Tsuyoshi Nishioka (fractured leg) are rehabbing in Class A Fort Myers.  Somewhat sadly, the foolishly optimistic will look to their triumphant returns as a sign of future success.  Alas, there is no future—not in 2011.  The Twins need absolute certitude that Mauer is fully healthy before asking him to return, especially if that means assuming full-time catching duties.  If that means sitting him out for the reas of this year, so be it.  The least they should do is keep him engaged in a rehab program until they have a better grasp on the nature and severity of Mauer’s mysterious leg weakness.  While they’re at it, go ahead (a head) and make sure Morneau and Span are free of their concussion issues before placing them at additional risk in hopes of finishing anywhere but last place.

You hear it all the time: one season does not a career make.  It’s true of an organization too.  One season cannot and should not define the Twins.  They won’t be thrust back into the dark ages of the waning days off the 20^th century when they were being discussed for contraction.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  This is team that has built its foundation upon cogent decisions aimed at long-term, sustainable success.  The immediate gratification of grasping at a few wins in 2011 runs contrary to the very philosophies that have guided the team to almost a solid decade of championship caliber baseball.  Change course now, and you run the risk of paddling against the current until either the boat or the boatmen can continue no longer.  Right the ship…the right way.

M's With an Ace Up Their Sleeve?

A few seasons ago, although it seems like much longer, Erik Bedard was a dominant pitcher, albeit only for two seasons, and not even two “full” ones.  Blessed with a blazing fastball and one of the best curveballs in the game, Bedard baffled and befuddled hitters to the tune of a 28-16 record, a 3.37 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.  Considering how bad the Orioles were (and arguably still ARE), that W/L record is especially impressive, given the talent surrounding the former Baltimore ace.  In 2007, his last year in Baltimore, Bedard compiled 221 strikeouts in just 182 innings pitched, for a league-best 10.9 K/9, setting the league ablaze with his almost unhittable stuff.  He’d seemingly arrived, establishing himself as one of the American League’s top pitchers at age 28.

A much publicized off season trade sent Bedard packing to the Pacific Northwest in February of 2008, ostensibly for then-Mariners prospect Adam Jones.  Other pieces, Chris Tillman among them, were also attached, but at that time it was Jones that was the jewel in this king’s ransom of a trade—for the Orioles, anyway.  As it turns out, Bedard’s effectiveness was limited to the Eastern Time zone.  Well, that’s not entirely true.  The lefty actually pitched fairly well when he was physically able to pitch.  During his first go round in Seattle (2008-09), Bedard pitched to an 11-7 record, 3.24 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.  He also carried an 8.9 K/9—well enough for some to realize that he still had All-Star stuff, even if it was being thrown with an ailing arm (perhaps even dying).  That same arm was so gravely ill throughout most of the 2009 season, that Bedard was unable to pitch at all in 2010.  As luck would have it, it was a labrum, one of those finicky little things that average Joes seldom (if ever) have to concern themselves with, but for Major League pitchers, well…Bedard was doing a lot more rehabbing than pitching, much to the fiscal disappointment of the Seattle Mariners.

RE-signed and re-armed (pun intended) for the 2011 season, Bedard was hoping to return to form, although even he had to be fully aware that it was going to be an uphill battle.  Although, a quick look at his numbers to date would suggest that things are going splendidly.  His 2-4 record is no indication at all how good Bedard has been.  He’s pitched to a 3.94 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, limiting hitters to just 41 hits in 45.2 innings pitched.  Further, he’s regained some of his dominant mound presence, holding an 8.08 K/9.  Sure, he’s managed to pitch more than five innings in just three of eight starts to begin the year, but the mere fact that he’s made eight starts is encouraging to say the least.  Those eight starts are already more than half way to his 2009 total—the last year he toed the rubber in the bigs.

Can he sustain it?  Well, by now it should be fairly clear that he’s capable of sustaining this level of success.  In reality, it’s Bedard’s ability to sustain his current level of health that bears watching. Manager Eric Wedge seems content to maximize the number of effective innings that Bedard throws rather than worrying about him simply eating innings—quality over quantity, it seems.  That seems to be the safe(r) play too.  In 152 career games pitched, Bedard has completed only one…one.  To ask him to throw too many innings is like playing Russian roulette with his delicate arm.  Eventually, things are probably going to break down, that is unless Wedge and company pay special attention to Bedard’s very special needs.