Monday, June 27, 2011

Verlander and That Next Level S**t

Although Detroit’s Justin Verlander has won at least 17 games on four different occasions, he’s never won 20 games in any season, and that must be tearing him up inside.  Why else would he be taking his already dominant game to the proverbial next level while already making it half way to 20 in 2011?  Oh, he may say publicly that 20 is just a number and that it’s all about team wins, because, well, that’s what he’s supposed to say.  He’ll also probably recite chapter of verse from the big book of baseball clichés, talking about giving it 110%, making pitches, hitting spots, and blah, blah, blah…
Make no mistake, Justin Verlander hasn’t been worried about hitting his spots since his BB/9 was approaching 4.00—way back in 2008, and even then he was still mowing down the competition with the greatest of ease.  It’s even easier now, or, that’s what the numbers suggest.  Verlander has his BB/9 down to a career-best 1.89, nearly one full walk lower than his career average.  With an average velocity that challenges any pitcher in the game, he’s been consistently touching triple digits into the eighth and ninth innings.  No, his 8.67 K/9 isn’t the best of his career, but he’s still a strikeout machine ranking second overall in baseball with 124 whiffs.   As a result of all those missed bats is an ERA of 2.38, the lowest such mark of his accomplished career.  Sure, that number may be aided by a .216 opponent’s BABIP, but when Verlander’s throwing balls that even the best hitters in the game can’t touch, you have to start to wonder just how much luck is influencing his stats, if at all.  
June has been just a little bit silly for Verlander: 5-0 with a 0.86 ERA, 0.62 WHIP and a 48:4 K:BB.  He’s had three different games of 10 or more strikeouts, including a season-high 14 just the other day.  This is a guy who’s only surrendered 22 hits in 42.0 innings pitched, meaning the opposition seldom has even a chance to score against him.  The only blemish against the Tiger ace this month has been the two home runs he’s yielded, one to Gordon Beckham (at Chicago) and another to Ty Wiggington (in Colorado)—both in launching-pad environs.  Hell, if you check the calendar, Verlander hasn’t had anything close to a bad start since May 24 where he gave up six earned to Tampa Bay.  Further, Verlander’s last loss came way back on April 27 against Seattle, a full 12 starts ago.  Right now, he’s simply dialed in.
He’s so dialed in, in fact, that it’s pretty difficult to point to another American League pitcher with even an outside chance at outdueling Verlander for this year’s Cy Young Award.  If the vote were cast today, he’d win in a landslide, almost as though he’d run uncontested.  After all, he’s currently fourth in the league in ERA, tops in quality starts, tops in WHIP, tops in Ks, all with the most innings pitched.  Really, the list goes on and on.  And those 10 wins are also tied for the league lead—exactly half way to that vaunted 20-win mark, something the Cy Young Award voting-types are sure to notice.  It’s hardly a lock for Verlander.  After all, there’s still half a season to go.  Still, he’s pitched so well to this point that he could miss some time (Injury?  Paternity?) and still finish squarely in the top-5.
For now, baseball fans should just sit back and enjoy the ride.  It’s been fun already, and with the way June has gone, well, it might be a season for the ages.

Thursday, June 16, 2011

Taking a Leap with Cole Hamels

Has anyone taken the time to notice that perhaps the least heralded member of the Philadelphia Phillies vaunted rotation might actually be their best performing pitcher right now?  Well, Jockstrap Journalism noticed.  That’s right, people (and marine mammals)…midway through June, Cole Hamels’ numbers a hold their own against any pitcher in the National League, even the other Phillies.  Right now, Hamels is 9-2 with a 2.49 ERA and 0.92 WHIP—numbers that have him in the earliest of early runnings for National League Cy Young Award.
As the weather has warmed, so too has Hamels.  He’s 2-0 with a 0.78 ERA and 0.61 WHIP so far in the month of June, and Hamels hasn’t lost a start since the beginning of May—that’s more than a month for those of you that are otherwise calendar deprived.  We live in difficult times, cast adrift in a world devoid of calendars and maps (thanks, South Carolina).  Even without access to these modern amenities, Hamels seems to have found his way, having fully righted his ship after an appalling start to the season that left him saddled with a 20.25 ERA after one start.  Yah, he seems to have recovered just fine.
Can he sustain this level of success over a full season?  Well, his FIP (2.28) and xFIP (2.51) both say, “why the hell not?”  Hamels is touting an 8.94 K/9, slightly better than his career mark, and he’s cut his walks to a career-best 1.75 BB/9. When the word “career” starts appearing with abundant frequency in order to irradiate, it may in fact be an indicator that a career year is developing.  This could legitimately be Hamels’ way of taking a run at something special.

Friday, June 10, 2011

To the Suddenly Optimistic Twins Fan

It may be foolish to point this out, but the Minnesota Twins are suddenly the hottest team in baseball.  That’s right, the last place Minnesota Twins…them.  Oh, for sure, any time a team goes 7-1 over any stretch, you have to stand up and take notice.  It’s especially noteworthy when the team in question has been the worst team in the game for most of the season.  With Houston and Oakland also struggling mightily, the Twins failings still stood out amidst lofty expectations to begin the season.  It’s been a long hard road for Minnesota.

Okay people, before your noodles get all excited over the Twins recent run of success, do be aware that six of those wins came against Kansas City (26-36) and a rapidly retreating Cleveland team that’s gone 4-11 over their past 15 games.  Oh, sure, the Indians are still 34-26 and are the creme de la crap that is the American League Central.  Make no mistake, however, these is just not the same Indians team that was lengths in front of the pack to begin the year.  As for the Royals, well, they’re the friggin’ Royals, okay?  They have lots of young and exciting players making their way to the Major Leagues at this very moment, but their glory days still lie past the horizon.

Let’s not forget, too, that the Twins are still dead last in the whole American League, even after their recent success (.387).  This is a team with the worst run differential in all of baseball (-70), meaning their win probability is as embarrassing as their actual won-lost record.  And the hits just keep on coming.  The Twins team OBP (.301) ranks next to last in baseball, with only the Mariners turning in a worse mark.  Sadly, their team SLG (.349) isn’t much better, ranking 27th, the exact same ranking as their staff ERA.  This should tell you that the Twins struggles aren’t simply a matter of hitting, or lack thereof.  Their pitching staff ranks dead last in the game in total strikeouts (355).  Sure, the Twins as an organization teach their hurlers to pitch to contact, but it’s working a little too well, for the opposition anyway.

Some will be quick to point out that a lot of the Twins struggles can be traced to their inability to field a healthy team.  It’s a valid point; it really is.  No, really.  As if this team wasn’t already beset by injuries, with the likes of Joe Mauer, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Joe Nathan, Jim Thome, Glen Perkins, and Kevin Slowey all on the disabled list in some capacity, the Twins just placed Denard Span on the 7-day DL with a concussion.  That’s not good news—not for Span and not for his team.  Ask Morneau how impactful concussion symptoms can be, influencing balance, depth perception, and vision—all things that are pretty important when it comes to playing baseball.  So, yah, it’s really that bad.

Three-time AL batting champion, Joe Mauer, is on the verge of returning as both he and Tsuyoshi Nishioka (fractured leg) are rehabbing in Class A Fort Myers.  Somewhat sadly, the foolishly optimistic will look to their triumphant returns as a sign of future success.  Alas, there is no future—not in 2011.  The Twins need absolute certitude that Mauer is fully healthy before asking him to return, especially if that means assuming full-time catching duties.  If that means sitting him out for the reas of this year, so be it.  The least they should do is keep him engaged in a rehab program until they have a better grasp on the nature and severity of Mauer’s mysterious leg weakness.  While they’re at it, go ahead (a head) and make sure Morneau and Span are free of their concussion issues before placing them at additional risk in hopes of finishing anywhere but last place.

You hear it all the time: one season does not a career make.  It’s true of an organization too.  One season cannot and should not define the Twins.  They won’t be thrust back into the dark ages of the waning days off the 20th century when they were being discussed for contraction.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  This is team that has built its foundation upon cogent decisions aimed at long-term, sustainable success.  The immediate gratification of grasping at a few wins in 2011 runs contrary to the very philosophies that have guided the team to almost a solid decade of championship caliber baseball.  Change course now, and you run the risk of paddling against the current until either the boat or the boatmen can continue no longer.  Right the ship…the right way.

Monday, June 6, 2011

The Need for Speed: A Potential Fantasy Maverick

Eric Young Jr. has been on the tip of every fantasy owner’s tongue for what seems like the better part of a decade now.  Well, it hasn’t been nearly that long, but back in 2006 he got everyone more than a little bit excited when he swiped 87 bags for the Rockies in A-ball.  It’s not much of a stretch to say that ballplayers don’t steal 80 bases with great frequency.  In the Major Leagues, in fact, it hasn’t happened since both Rickey Henderson (doy) and Vince Coleman (well, sure) both accomplished the feat in 1988.  While players aren’t necessarily any slower, and pickoff moves probably haven’t improved exponentially, it’s safe to assume that with the power surge of the 1990s and 2000s, the stolen base simply fell out of vogue (strike a pose).  When a player flashes a special talent, especially when that talent goes against the grain (so to speak), it simply stands out all the more.  That’s how fantasy baseball enthusiasts became enamored with the potential of one Eric Young Jr.

Young followed up his professional debut by hitting .291 with another 73 steals in high-A ball in 2007.  And, after hitting .290 with 46 steals in 2008, it was abundantly clear he was cut from the same mold as his father, Eric Young (465 career stolen bases).  The only real obstacle to junior’s path to the Major Leagues were the doubts about his ability to hit for a reasonable average at the game’s highest level, doubts that he has yet to fully erase to this day.

Young’s first taste of the big leagues came in 2009, a year in which the Rockies finished with the best record in franchise history (92-70), losing in the League Division Series three games to one versus the Philadelphia Phillies.  Young had trouble finding regular playing time amidst a pennant race and facing stiff competition at second base from Clint Barmes (23 HR, 12 SB).  Barmes’ greatness (relatively speaking) has already faded from memory, but he was a capable bat despite the .245 batting average.  Young compiled 61 plate appearances batting .246 with four stolen bases and his first big league home run (good for him).

Barmes’ struggles in 2010 led to the Rockies trying desperately to find stability at second base, using the likes of would-be 3B Ian Stewart, Jonathan Herrera, as well as Young in the role.  None fared particularly well, although more playing time meant fantasy baseball owners got a more extended look at Young—189 plate appearances to be exact.  While his batting average still languished (.244) his 17 steals in just 25 games reminded everyone of why their collective interest was piqued in the first place.  Speed is a rare commodity in fantasy circles and the promise of even 40, let alone 80 steals was simply too much to pass up.

2011 was going to be different in Colorado, with newly-acquired Jose Lopez of Seattle Mariners fame finally bringing stability to the right side of the Rockies infield, a move which failed…tragically.  Lopez hit just .208 (.521 OPS), ranking him among the worst hitters in all of baseball.  Long story short, the team juggled the infield, again trying different combinations of players including the likes of Steward and Herrera, none of which really seemed to work for more than a game or two. Even realizing Lopez didn’t seem to bring clarity to the issue.  In fact, when Lopez was released, a familiar name resurfaced in Colorado—Mr. Eric Young Jr.

So, here we are again…again.  After hitting .363 in 42 games in AAA, Young will be given another shot at being a full-time big league second baseman, more or less. Since being recalled, Young has hit .258 in eight games while stealing three bases—effective but understated numbers.  Eight games really isn’t enough of a sample size to really formulate a cogent opinion, but if his six-plus years in the minor leagues is any indication, Young can and will bring one thing to the table, a heaping helping of speed.  With the Rockies also needing occasional help in the outfield (where Young can reasonably fake it), it appears as though this may be the year Young gets to sink or swim on his own merits.  After all, it’s only Herrera and the bloated, range-deprived body of Ty Wiggington standing in his way.  NL-only owners need to be aware of his presence, and should playing time continue to come his way, his steals alone might make Young relevant in deeper mixed formats, ROTO leagues in particular.  It all has a familiar refrain, but this time Jockstrap Journalism might actually be right.  Imagine that.

Friday, May 27, 2011

Safer Game, Better Game?

The throw came in from San Francisco right fielder Nate Schierholtz, with the intention of throwing out runner Scott Cousins at home plate during the 12th inning of a 6-6 ballgame.  The throw arrived, just a little late and slightly to the first base side of the plate.   Catcher Buster Posey never fully secured the ball before attempting a tag, not that having possession would have prevented everything that was to follow.  Cousins was safe at home, allowing the Marlins to take a 7-6 lead.  On the play however, Cousins barreled into Posey with full force, making contact with most (if not all) of his upper body.  The voice of longtime Giants broadcaster Jon Miller still echoes, “And Posey gets clobbered”.

Posey lay on the ground grasping at dirt, seemingly searching for some relief to the very obvious and very intense pain he was experiencing.  That intense pain, it was later revealed, was the result of a fractured left ankle.  A series of MRIs also revealed additional ligament damage, casting further doubt on when Posey may be able to return to action.  Initial estimates have Posey missing the remainder of the 2011 season, with the primary focus centering on a full recovery for Spring Training, 2012.  Granted, when an injury of this severity occurs, baseball activities are a distant second to making certain that the player involved is able to simply walk again. 

Whenever a player is severely injured, particularly a star player like Posey, fans and analysts want answers to questions like “why”.  It seems an innocuous enough query, but that word “why” can be a loaded one.  Desperate for answers, it is the natural inclination of some to start to assign blame. 

In this way, the runner (Cousins) is an easy target for blame, much in the way Pete Rose is blamed for Ray Fosse’s demise.  Although, if Cousins were a player of Rose’s caliber, it’s doubtful that so many fingers would be pointed in his general direction.  In fact, as was the case with Rose, Cousins would be applauded for his hard-nosed style of play, and his overwhelming desire to win at all costs.  Writers would be coining nicknames for him (Scotty “Hustle”, anyone?), and the play would be held up as a testament to the competitive spirit of some mythical, bygone era.   The same sportswriters who want fans to believe that everything was better when players cared more (as expressed by their willingness to run out ground balls, lay down bunts, and, well, take out catchers) are the very scribes that are looking to place blame on the game for allowing certain players to care too much.

Now, many in the industry are calling for stricter enforcement of the rules governing collisions at and around the plate, be they  regarding the legality of obstructing the plate (something the rules already disallow) or the guidelines regarding collisions (at the plate or otherwise).  Should Major League Baseball now seek to more stringently enforce those existing rules that are supposed to protect the employees on the field of play, or are additional steps (i.e. new rules) necessary to ensure that players are safe on the job?  The NCAA and the National Federation of State High School Associations (NFHS) already have a system of rules in place to prevent home plate collisions, and they’ve helped to reduce the number of serious injuries.  Is it then time for MLB to follow suit and find solutions for this newfound collision dilemma?

It must be understood that the injury dilemma is nothing new to baseball.  In 1972, when the Designated Hitter rule was implemented, there was a concerted effort to attempt to infuse the game with more offensive production, well, in the American league anyway.  Another part of that argument was that pitchers were placed in harm’s way by having to run the bases.  To this end, pitchers were (and still are) allowed to wear a warm-up jacket while on the base paths.  The practice has largely fallen out of favor in today’s game, but the image of a robust Fernando Valenzuela expanding his already prominent profile by donning a satin jacket is an image you won’t soon forget.  A rule was changed, for better or for worse, and pitchers are now safer for it, or, are they?

Yankees manager Joe Girardi was openly critical of the necessity of pitchers having to run the bases after Chien-Ming Wang injured his foot on the base paths during a 2008 game against the Houston Astros (in Houston, obviously).  Here again, someone or something had to be blamed for Wang’s misfortune, even if Girardi was unwilling or unable to offer a reasonable solution.  Designated runners?  A universal DH rule that governed both leagues?  Each is a possibility, but altering the existing rules couldn’t turn back time and prevent Wang’s foot injury (even if he did only throw 88 MPH), nor would it assure that designated hitters and/or runners wouldn’t be injured themselves.  Yet because Wang was forced to miss significant time due to the injury, someone (not the injured player, mind you) had to assume the guilt.

Fast-forward yet again, to April 12, 2011, and a very well-documented play involving the Rangers Josh Hamilton.  Hamilton, a player with an already spotty injury history, was injured during a play at the plate versus the Detroit Tigers.  With the score at 1-0, Hamilton tagged up on a foul pop out to third baseman Brandon Inge.  On the play, C Victor Martinez also converged on the ball, leaving home plate unattended.  Aware of the situation at hand, third base coach Dave Anderson sent Hamilton (who had tagged up on the play) in an attempt to score.  Martinez outraced Hamilton to the plate, forcing the former American League MVP to slide head-first slide into home.  He was out.  Of course, he was also injured.

Medical exams revealed that Hamilton suffered a broken humerus bone, eventually forcing the former American League MVP to miss 36 games.  Immediately following the game, Hamilton was openly critical of the decision by to send him in that situation, stating explicitly that it was “a stupid play”.  The implication here is that Hamilton’s injury couldn’t have possibly occurred had he been held at third—a fairly obvious observation.   Yet the injury also sparked a dialogue about the necessity of the head first slide.  Is it safe?  Is it even effective? 

Anyone asking those questions need only look up the career numbers of Rickey Henderson to find a clear answer.  Looking further, Hamilton’s had his fair share of close plays at the plate, but none of them to that point led to a serious injury.  Additionally, throughout his career, he’s made countless head-first slides, including one on the play that found Hamilton standing on third base to begin with (an RBI triple).    Another fact that cannot be ignored is that Hamilton was the Rangers designated hitter on the day he was injured, presumably in an effort to reduce the strain on his body.  It didn’t work.  Then again, there’s really no planning for the type of injury Hamilton sustained.

The Posey injury has thrust the topic of player safety into the spotlight once again.  What responsibility do teams (and MLB) have in protecting their players?  And, what responsibility do the players have in protecting themselves?  Posey has yet to address the issue publicly, as he’s undoubtedly been preoccupied with the immediacy of the injury itself.  Posey’s agent, Jeff Berry, has stated that he’d like Major League Baseball to consider the notion of changing the rules that govern plays at home plate, specifically for safety reasons.  Commissioner Bud Selig has yet to issue an official statement, but baseball will likely come out in support of its existing rules, for liability purposes if nothing else.  At the same time, straw polls of the players themselves indicate that they simply do not favor any rules that would curtail aggressive play.

Aggressive play is one of the ways by which players foster their very identities.  To this end, plays at the plate happen, and will continue to happen.  So too will head first slides.  These are parts of the game that simply will not change.  But, should they? 

More often than not, pitchers that get injured do so while throwing.  In order to eliminate future pitching-related injuries, Major League Baseball should consider allowing batters to hit from a tee, thereby reducing the risk to pitchers’ elbows and shoulders.  While the notion of advertising on bases fell by the wayside, perhaps MLB should consider replacing bases with down pillows (the softer the better).  Players will no longer be required to run the bases, but will instead ride Segways from station to station.  This station-to-station style of play will prevent players from taking extra bases and eliminate the need for sliding altogether.  Fielders will no longer be required to catch balls for fear of injuring their hands—hands that are needed for signing contracts and/or checks.  Additionally, hitters will not be permitted to use a bat, as the use of a potential weapon sends a message of violence to children.  With these measures in place, baseball will finally be closer to becoming the fan-friendly, safety-minded sport it should be.  Or, everyone can just go play soccer.

Monday, May 23, 2011

M's With an Ace Up Their Sleeve?

A few seasons ago, although it seems like much longer, Erik Bedard was a dominant pitcher, albeit only for two seasons, and not even two “full” ones.  Blessed with a blazing fastball and one of the best curveballs in the game, Bedard baffled and befuddled hitters to the tune of a 28-16 record, a 3.37 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.  Considering how bad the Orioles were (and arguably still ARE), that W/L record is especially impressive, given the talent surrounding the former Baltimore ace.  In 2007, his last year in Baltimore, Bedard compiled 221 strikeouts in just 182 innings pitched, for a league-best 10.9 K/9, setting the league ablaze with his almost unhittable stuff.  He’d seemingly arrived, establishing himself as one of the American League’s top pitchers at age 28.

A much publicized off season trade sent Bedard packing to the Pacific Northwest in February of 2008, ostensibly for then-Mariners prospect Adam Jones.  Other pieces, Chris Tillman among them, were also attached, but at that time it was Jones that was the jewel in this king’s ransom of a trade—for the Orioles, anyway.  As it turns out, Bedard’s effectiveness was limited to the Eastern Time zone.  Well, that’s not entirely true.  The lefty actually pitched fairly well when he was physically able to pitch.  During his first go round in Seattle (2008-09), Bedard pitched to an 11-7 record, 3.24 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.  He also carried an 8.9 K/9—well enough for some to realize that he still had All-Star stuff, even if it was being thrown with an ailing arm (perhaps even dying).  That same arm was so gravely ill throughout most of the 2009 season, that Bedard was unable to pitch at all in 2010.  As luck would have it, it was a labrum, one of those finicky little things that average Joes seldom (if ever) have to concern themselves with, but for Major League pitchers, well…Bedard was doing a lot more rehabbing than pitching, much to the fiscal disappointment of the Seattle Mariners.

RE-signed and re-armed (pun intended) for the 2011 season, Bedard was hoping to return to form, although even he had to be fully aware that it was going to be an uphill battle.  Although, a quick look at his numbers to date would suggest that things are going splendidly.  His 2-4 record is no indication at all how good Bedard has been.  He’s pitched to a 3.94 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, limiting hitters to just 41 hits in 45.2 innings pitched.  Further, he’s regained some of his dominant mound presence, holding an 8.08 K/9.  Sure, he’s managed to pitch more than five innings in just three of eight starts to begin the year, but the mere fact that he’s made eight starts is encouraging to say the least.  Those eight starts are already more than half way to his 2009 total—the last year he toed the rubber in the bigs.

Can he sustain it?  Well, by now it should be fairly clear that he’s capable of sustaining this level of success.  In reality, it’s Bedard’s ability to sustain his current level of health that bears watching. Manager Eric Wedge seems content to maximize the number of effective innings that Bedard throws rather than worrying about him simply eating innings—quality over quantity, it seems.  That seems to be the safe(r) play too.  In 152 career games pitched, Bedard has completed only one…one.  To ask him to throw too many innings is like playing Russian roulette with his delicate arm.  Eventually, things are probably going to break down, that is unless Wedge and company pay special attention to Bedard’s very special needs.

Friday, May 13, 2011

Smoak Signals, and Other Clichés

Don’t look now, but there just may be a Seattle Mariner that’s not afraid of making solid contact with baseballs.  And, no, we’re not about to launch into a barrage of insults hurled in the general direction of soon-to-be ex-closer Brandon League (although that wouldn’t be without merit).  No.  Rather, we’re speaking (or writing) of one Justin Smoak, the young first baseman the M’s acquired in the Cliff Lee trade just a season ago.  Considering that the going rate for this once top prospect was Lee (a bona fide ace), it’s not like Smoak was some kind of secret.  Prospect aficionados have been enamored with Smoak since he was drafted by the Texas Rangers in 2008.  Since then, he’s been fast-tracked to the big leagues as a potential impact bat, and while it’s taken him until 2011 to finally find his stride, it seems that Smoak may finally be living up to his potential.
His arriva, such as it is, couldn’t have come a moment sooner—not for the Mariners anyway.  This is a team giving significant at bats to the likes of Miguel Olivo (.526 OPS), Brendan Ryan (.526 OPS), Chone Figgins (.576 OPS), and until his recent release for simply being himself, Milton M-Fin’ Bradley and his .218 batting average.  Murderer’s Row this ain’t. Sure, Safeco Field isn’t exactly a launching pad either, ranking 29th overall in scoring and home runs in 2010 (the last full year of date).  Still, one has to realize that much of the diminished scoring has to do with the home team’s sickening inability to score runs in any way, shape, or form.  2011 has been a bit better in Seattle, and that may actually have something to do with the emergence of Justin Smoak.
Actually, that’s a bit optimistic, but his development has been pretty impressive.  Already, Smoak has shown signs of being every bit the hitter the Mariners were hoping he’d become when they traded for his services a season ago.  At the time of the trade in 2010, Smoak was hitting just .209 with a .670 OPS for the Rangers—no easy task for someone playing half his games in that hitter-friendly Ballpark at Arlington.  The move to the Pacific Northwest didn’t treat Smoak much better, and why would it?  As previously discussed, Safeco Field is hard on hitters, especially rookies trying to learn on the job.  Ultimately, Smoak’s 2010 final stats left a lot to be desired: .218 AVG, .307 OBP, and .371 SLG. 
His .284 batting average is a significant improvement over his rookie showing.  His OBP (.397) and SLG (.505) indicate similar growth in both pitch recognition and power potential.  In this way, 2011 looks like Smoak’s coming out party, and not in a YMCA-type way.  While his current 1.1 WAR doesn’t really portend of a game-changer at first, it too is an improvement over his rookie season.  A .333 BABIP is right on the cusp of sustainability, so it’s difficult to simply call Smoak “lucky”.  Rather, it seems possible, perhaps even probable, that this is part of the natural progression of a much ballyhooed ballplayer, finally coming into his own, quite possibly with much more to come.