M's With an Ace Up Their Sleeve?

A few seasons ago, although it seems like much longer, Erik Bedard was a dominant pitcher, albeit only for two seasons, and not even two “full” ones.  Blessed with a blazing fastball and one of the best curveballs in the game, Bedard baffled and befuddled hitters to the tune of a 28-16 record, a 3.37 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.  Considering how bad the Orioles were (and arguably still ARE), that W/L record is especially impressive, given the talent surrounding the former Baltimore ace.  In 2007, his last year in Baltimore, Bedard compiled 221 strikeouts in just 182 innings pitched, for a league-best 10.9 K/9, setting the league ablaze with his almost unhittable stuff.  He’d seemingly arrived, establishing himself as one of the American League’s top pitchers at age 28.

A much publicized off season trade sent Bedard packing to the Pacific Northwest in February of 2008, ostensibly for then-Mariners prospect Adam Jones.  Other pieces, Chris Tillman among them, were also attached, but at that time it was Jones that was the jewel in this king’s ransom of a trade—for the Orioles, anyway.  As it turns out, Bedard’s effectiveness was limited to the Eastern Time zone.  Well, that’s not entirely true.  The lefty actually pitched fairly well when he was physically able to pitch.  During his first go round in Seattle (2008-09), Bedard pitched to an 11-7 record, 3.24 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.  He also carried an 8.9 K/9—well enough for some to realize that he still had All-Star stuff, even if it was being thrown with an ailing arm (perhaps even dying).  That same arm was so gravely ill throughout most of the 2009 season, that Bedard was unable to pitch at all in 2010.  As luck would have it, it was a labrum, one of those finicky little things that average Joes seldom (if ever) have to concern themselves with, but for Major League pitchers, well…Bedard was doing a lot more rehabbing than pitching, much to the fiscal disappointment of the Seattle Mariners.

RE-signed and re-armed (pun intended) for the 2011 season, Bedard was hoping to return to form, although even he had to be fully aware that it was going to be an uphill battle.  Although, a quick look at his numbers to date would suggest that things are going splendidly.  His 2-4 record is no indication at all how good Bedard has been.  He’s pitched to a 3.94 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, limiting hitters to just 41 hits in 45.2 innings pitched.  Further, he’s regained some of his dominant mound presence, holding an 8.08 K/9.  Sure, he’s managed to pitch more than five innings in just three of eight starts to begin the year, but the mere fact that he’s made eight starts is encouraging to say the least.  Those eight starts are already more than half way to his 2009 total—the last year he toed the rubber in the bigs.

Can he sustain it?  Well, by now it should be fairly clear that he’s capable of sustaining this level of success.  In reality, it’s Bedard’s ability to sustain his current level of health that bears watching. Manager Eric Wedge seems content to maximize the number of effective innings that Bedard throws rather than worrying about him simply eating innings—quality over quantity, it seems.  That seems to be the safe(r) play too.  In 152 career games pitched, Bedard has completed only one…one.  To ask him to throw too many innings is like playing Russian roulette with his delicate arm.  Eventually, things are probably going to break down, that is unless Wedge and company pay special attention to Bedard’s very special needs.

Smoak Signals, and Other Clichés

Don’t look now, but there just may be a Seattle Mariner that’s not afraid of making solid contact with baseballs.  And, no, we’re not about to launch into a barrage of insults hurled in the general direction of soon-to-be ex-closer Brandon League (although that wouldn’t be without merit).  No.  Rather, we’re speaking (or writing) of one Justin Smoak, the young first baseman the M’s acquired in the Cliff Lee trade just a season ago.  Considering that the going rate for this once top prospect was Lee (a bona fide ace), it’s not like Smoak was some kind of secret.  Prospect aficionados have been enamored with Smoak since he was drafted by the Texas Rangers in 2008.  Since then, he’s been fast-tracked to the big leagues as a potential impact bat, and while it’s taken him until 2011 to finally find his stride, it seems that Smoak may finally be living up to his potential.

His arriva, such as it is, couldn’t have come a moment sooner—not for the Mariners anyway.  This is a team giving significant at bats to the likes of Miguel Olivo (.526 OPS), Brendan Ryan (.526 OPS), Chone Figgins (.576 OPS), and until his recent release for simply being himself, Milton M-Fin’ Bradley and his .218 batting average.  Murderer’s Row this ain’t. Sure, Safeco Field isn’t exactly a launching pad either, ranking 29^th overall in scoring and home runs in 2010 (the last full year of date).  Still, one has to realize that much of the diminished scoring has to do with the home team’s sickening inability to score runs in any way, shape, or form.  2011 has been a bit better in Seattle, and that may actually have something to do with the emergence of Justin Smoak.

Actually, that’s a bit optimistic, but his development has been pretty impressive.  Already, Smoak has shown signs of being every bit the hitter the Mariners were hoping he’d become when they traded for his services a season ago.  At the time of the trade in 2010, Smoak was hitting just .209 with a .670 OPS for the Rangers—no easy task for someone playing half his games in that hitter-friendly Ballpark at Arlington.  The move to the Pacific Northwest didn’t treat Smoak much better, and why would it?  As previously discussed, Safeco Field is hard on hitters, especially rookies trying to learn on the job.  Ultimately, Smoak’s 2010 final stats left a lot to be desired: .218 AVG, .307 OBP, and .371 SLG. 

His .284 batting average is a significant improvement over his rookie showing.  His OBP (.397) and SLG (.505) indicate similar growth in both pitch recognition and power potential.  In this way, 2011 looks like Smoak’s coming out party, and not in a YMCA-type way.  While his current 1.1 WAR doesn’t really portend of a game-changer at first, it too is an improvement over his rookie season.  A .333 BABIP is right on the cusp of sustainability, so it’s difficult to simply call Smoak “lucky”.  Rather, it seems possible, perhaps even probable, that this is part of the natural progression of a much ballyhooed ballplayer, finally coming into his own, quite possibly with much more to come.

Red Sox v. Twins: A Tale of Two Teams

There’s something about tonight’s baseball game on a certain four-letter network that just doesn’t resonate with fans.  No, it’s not the inane blatherings of Aaron “Bleeping” Boone (although they don’t help matters any).  No, it’s not the potential drunken ramblings of Rick Sutcliffe (those are at least entertaining).  And no, it’s not a potential wardrobe malfunction by on-field reporter Tim Kurkjian (although Erin Andrews would be better).   In all honesty, it’s the combined records of the two teams playing.  At a combined 28-38, the Minnesota Twins (12-20) and Boston Red Sox (16-18) are playing well below expectations, frustrating even the most casual onlookers with their less than stellar performances.

After a busy offseason that included signing outfielder Carl Crawford to a seven year, $142-million contract, and trading for first baseman Adrian Gonzalez (who later signed a $154-million contract extension of his own), the Red Sox seem poised to lay siege to the American League. After all, adding two perennial All-Stars to an already strong collection of offensive talent seemed a sure-fire way to put an already competitive team over the top (note the Sly Stallone reference).  Top to bottom, the team featured an offense that seemed capable of running roughshod over even the strongest teams the AL had to offer, and causing the lesser squads to quake with fear like the tiny fools they truly were (bonus points for getting that reference). 

So far, the Boston offense had been, oh, middle off the road.  They’re 14^th in runs scored with 144, 12^th in batting average (.254), and 14^th in slugging % (.393).  It would be something if a slap in the face to Red Sox fans to point out how far behind the Yankees they are in certain statistical categories.  Suffice it to say, the Yankees aren’t struggling to score runs the way the Red Sox seem to be.  Worse, perhaps, is the team’s inability to prevent runs.  The Red Sox team ERA (4.31) is the third-worst in the American League, and much of that is due to Jon Lackey’s sudden transformation into a human batting tee (see: 7.16 ERA, 1.74 WHIP).

The Twins fare no better.  In fact, to their season has had all the promise of a cancer diagnosis.  Neither of their former American League MVPs has contributed much to an anemic offense that ranks dead last in the Major Leagues with a .292 OBP and next to last with a .323 SLG (thanks, Padres).  Justin Morneau is hitting just .202 with a .561 OPS and Joe Mauer, the team’s equivalent of Jesus Christ at catcher, was hitting just .235 before a mysterious ailment caused his legs (and bat) to lose all their strength.  Sure, the fact that Mauer, outfielder Delmon Young, and DH Jim Thome are all on the disabled list could be seen as a reason for their struggles—an excuse if you will.  No excuses, people…NO EXCUSES!!!

Not that it matters.  The Twins team ERA (4.73) is next to last in the American League, meaning that they couldn’t stop the opposition from scoring, even if their offense were making a contribution.  The team’s .375 winning % is an indication of just how bad things are at the moment.  The offense is terrible.  The starting pitching, Francisco Liriano’s no-hitter aside, has been a huge disappointment.  Even the relief pitching, last season’s saving grace, has let them down.  Former All-Star closer Joe Nathan and his 8.18 ERA is a testament to the fact that not every pitcher comes back from Tommy John surgery without a hiccup.

Having a nationally televised game of these two faltering franchises seems less than appealing in so many ways.  Stars on both sides are either statistically absent or absent altogether.  Injuries and ineffectiveness have stripped this May game of its potential playoff feel.  Sadly however, Twins fans don’t seem to have as much optimism as their Boston counterparts.  Even with all the Minnesota-nice you can heap upon the analysis, the simple fact remains that the difference in overall talent between these two rosters makes it extremely difficult for even the most ardent Twins fan to see a silver lining.  The Red Sox, for all their failings, finally look like their dormant bats are coming to life.  The Twins, on the other hand, have to look to the trainer’s table to even find their best hitters.  By the time Mauer and company get back to playing baseball, it would be surprising if the Red Sox weren’t; already on the plus-side of .500, at least in part because they can take 3-of-4 from the Twins with a nationally televised victory on May 9, 2011.

The Reanimated Corpse of Raul Ibanez

While perusing the Philadelphia Inquirer on the morning of May 2, something interesting popped up—the obituary of Raul Ibanez.  The celebrated outfielder and former All-Star was apparently dead at age 39, although details of his passing were largely unknown.  It seemed like an appropriate time to look back on the storied career of this once celebrated ballplayer.  

Ibanez actually broke into the Major Leagues in 1996 during a brief August call-up, going hitless in the only four games in which he appeared.  The following season, he got another cup of coffee, playing in 11 games, eventually registering his first big league hit and home run.  His games played increased ever so slightly each of the next few seasons, from 37 to 87, to 92.  Ibanez, seemingly destined to be a career backup with the Mariners, left the team as a free agent, ultimately signing with the Royals on January 22, 2001.  The Royals seemed far more willing to allow Ibanez to succeed, or, at least play.  Ibanez appeared in 104 games for Kansas City in 2001, where the outfielder hit .280 with 13 HR and 54 RBIs.  Then, the following year, and at the ripe old age of 30, Ibanez was finally given the chance to prove himself as an everyday player, and prove himself he did.  Ibanez enjoyed a breakout season, one in which he hit .294 with 24 HR and 103 RBIs.

After another fine season in which he hit .294 with 18 HR and 90 RBIs, Ibanez returned to his old Seattle stomping grounds in 2004, hitting a career-high .304 in the process.  While in Seattle, Ibanez enjoyed perhaps his finest season, hitting .289 with 103 runs, 33 home runs, and 123 runs batted in, even finishing 21^st in the American League MVP voting.  From 2006 to 2008, Ibanez hit .291 averaging 26 HR and 113 RBIs.  He’d gone from being an obscure fourth outfielder in his frost go-round with the team, l to one of Seattle’s offensive and clubhouse leaders.  However, by the time he’d finally realized his dream, the baseball world was already casting doubts on whether a then-36 year old player could maintain such lofty numbers.

Those questions were only magnified when Ibanez signed a 3-year, $31.5 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies.  Certainly a player of his advanced age couldn’t handle playing in the National League where the weary couldn’t be afforded rest time at designated hitter.  Clearly, the Phillies would come to regret guaranteeing three years to a player entering his age 37 season.  And it was a foregone conclusion that failure was the only option for both sides, as calamity would eventually ensue.  But it didn’t.  Much like he’d done after turning 30, Ibanez again silenced the critics in 2009.  After hitting .359 with seven home runs in a torrid April, Ibanez continued his destruction of National League pitching by hitting .312 in May with 10 home runs.   By the All-Star break, he’d already hit 22 home runs, garnering over four million votes for the midsummer classic in the process.  He went on to post career-highs home runs (34), slugging percentage (.552) and OPS (.899)—not bad for an aging, near-wash-out.

However, after a so-so 2010 campaign in which he hit just .275 with 16 home runs and 83 runs batted in, it seemed as though Ibanez was starting that inevitable decline.  The critics, it seems, may have been correct.  Further still, 2011 started difficultly for Ibanez, particularly a ten game stretch from April 18 through May 1, during which Ibanez went just 1-for-31, prompting those same critics, and even casual observers to wonder aloud whether Ibanez was finally finished as an everyday player.  As it turns out…no.

Very recently, something rather strange, perhaps even uncanny happened; Raul Ibanez started hitting.  Over his past three games, all versus the Washington Nationals, Ibanez has gone 8-for-12 with two home runs and five runs batted in.  In the process, he’s raised his batting average 60-points while raising his OPS 187-points.  No, his numbers still don’t look like the Raul Ibanez of old, but his recent resurgence suggests that perhaps he’s not just an old Raul Ibanez.  If nothing else, he’s taken a step in refuting the assertions that he was in fact deceased.  As it turns out, there may be some life left in Ibanez after all.  Perhaps the final chapter in this former All-Star’s life has yet to be written.  Stay tuned.

Bouncing Back After a French Dip?

In each of his first two full big league seasons, former phenom Jeff Francoeur drove in at least 103 runs while averaging 24 home runs.  He found himself on the cover of Sports Illustrated and looked to be developing into every bit the franchise-type player the Braves were hoping he’d become when they drafted him.  However, those first two seasons were all the way back in 2006-07, almost eons ago in baseball terms.  Poor plate discipline would eventually get the better of him as pitchers were able to abuse his willingness to chase pitches outside of the strike zone.  From 2008-2010, Francoeur hit just .256 with a .301 OBP and .389 SLG, only occasionally showing flashes of the player many believed he would be in his early days with Atlanta.  Even two different changes of scenery (Mets and Rangers) couldn’t resurrect what once looked to be a career on the rise.

Things really seemed to bottom out for Francoeur in 2010 when he hit just .249 overall with a .383 SLG.  His LD% also bottomed out at a meager 14.4% and it was clear that he simply stopped hitting the ball hard.  He also exhibited evidence of developing even worse pitch recognition, never a strong suit to begin with.  Francoeur swung at 43.3% of pitches outside the strike zone in 2010, further demonstrating that his early success was a thing of the past.  Simply stated, pitchers keyed in on his kryptonite-like weakness and were able to exploit it at almost every turn.

Yet in 2011, Francoeur is off to a terrific start in Kansas City where he’s hoping to resurrect a career in decline.  A .330 average and .963 OPS suggest that he may have finally figured a few things out, but it’s unclear whether or not he can sustain these levels.  Logic dictates that he’ll eventually run into some struggles and his current numbers, lofty though they may be, will correct themselves and regress toward his career levels. Still, Royals hitting coach Kevin Seitzer seems confident, siting Francoeur’s newfound plate discipline as one catalyst for his early success.  Somehow, Seitzer’s optimism smacks of a certain amount of spin doctoring, as there’s no statistical evidence to suggest that Francoeur has changed his approach in any way.  What is it they say about leopards and spots?   Who knows?  But leopards aren’t very good at the game of baseball, and Francoeur isn’t changing his spots any time soon.

The Fighting, er, "Spending" Phils

Truth: Last year, the Philadelphia Phillies signed Ryan Howard to a five-year, $125 million extension.  That’s an average of $15 million per season.

Consequences: Leading up to the extension, Howard had averaged 49.5 home runs per year, the most of any player in baseball by a noticeable margin.  In those four seasons, Howard never hit fewer than 45 home runs and drove in at least 136 runs—stellar production for any player, regardless of position.  He’d won a National League Most Valuable Player Award and helped the Phillies reach two World Series (winning one).  Clearly, this was the kind of player that was the face of a franchise, and one around whom baseball people love to build franchises.  However…

By the time the contract kicks in (2012), Howard will already be 32 years old, a time when many players are already in their decline phase.  In fact, 2010 already looked an awful lot like the possible beginning of that very decline.  Clearly, a .276 batting average with 31 home runs and 108 RBIs was a good season, it just wasn’t a Ryan Howard season, nor was it a $25 million season.  Further, the early returns on his 2011 season seem to correspond to a further decline (at least so far), with Howard hitting .274 with an .803 OPS (representing a career-low).  Granted, 22 games played is a small sample size, but coupled with his 2010 stats, there’s reason to believe that age, as well as the absence of Chase Utley from the Phillies lineup, is really hurting Howard. 

That’s a great deal of uncertainty for a player who’s still owed the entirety of a $125 million contract.  And, because this is baseball, well, that’s all guaranteed money—money the Phillies will have to pay their slugging first baseman, providing he doesn’t pull a Gil Meche and walk away from a boatload of cash.  With all the problems facing the Phillies already this season (see the Domonic Brown and Utley injuries), it looks like the most significant problems are yet to come.  In all seriousness, how are the Phillies going to continue their recent success buried underneath the enormous dollars owed to so many star-caliber players?  Don’t forget, this is also a team that committed more than $15 million to an almost deceased Utley through 2013.  They owe $109 million to Cliff Lee, already pitching in his 30s and $20 million per season to Roy Halladay through 2013.  Clearly, there’s a very small window for winning here, and despite some early success in 2011, due to recent debilitations and declines, that window already looks to be closing.

McCourt TV: A Must-See Affair

In a move that few could have imagined, the Los Angeles Dodgers, long believed to be perhaps the model baseball franchise, had control of the team placed in the hands of Major League Baseball.  More accurately, day to day control of the team was wrenched from the hands of owner Frank McCourt, despite his death-grip.  Commissioner Bud Selig, who welcomed the McCourts (Frank and his wife) into baseball’s exclusive ownership club in 2004 with open arms, was always a strong supporter of the notion of returning the Dodgers to “family ownership”.  Their relationship was always seen as outwardly friendly.  However, like a close friend that’s had far too much to drink, Selig simply took the keys away from McCourt, and told him to take a cab home.

What exactly this means has yet to be clearly defined.  Since our prying eyes cannot yet see into the future, patience will have to guide our judgment(s), although fear is bound to cloud any vision we may have.  This is a potentially volatile situation, the way staring contests between billionaires often are.   Already, things have soured to such a degree that MLB deemed further inaction impossible—clearly a sign that their faith in the McCourts has waned.

History will eventually judge how we come to see the demise of the Los Angeles Dodgers, such as it is.  One would have to imagine that history will not be kind to the McCourt era.  From the moment the McCourts assumed control of the team, things have steadily declined in Los Angeles.  Debt mounted.  Attendance waned.  Most recently, as if things weren’t bad enough, violence has redefined the way fans across the country see the Dodgers.  Near beating deaths do seem to have a way of putting things in perspective, even for the most oblivious of narcissists.

From the very beginning, the Dodgers were not a sound business investment, or, they weren’t treated as such.  The team was not run capably or thoughtfully.  Rather, they were used and abused like a boutique lap dog—never truly loved, but dressed up and shown off in an effort to impress friends and hangers-on.  Owning a Major League Baseball team was just another in a series of extravagant purchases for the McCourts, who always seemed to view opulence as a virtue.  As long as they had access to life’s extravagances, perhaps the necessities would somehow take care of themselves.  Alas, they didn’t.

Life fell apart pretty quickly for the McCourts.  Apparently all the material wealth could not sustain a healthy and nourshing relationship—something the couple may have never enjoyed.  Jamie McCourt filed for divorce on October 28, 2009, laying claim to half of the team and other shared assets valued at more than $1 billion (with a “B”).  In the petition, filed in a Los Angeles County Superior Court, Mrs. McCourt cited irreconcilable differences as the catalyst for the separation, also demanding that she be reinstated to the position from which she was fired (by her husband) just one week prior.  And so began the utter awesomeness…

The very public, often ugly divorce proceedings between Mr. and Mrs. McCourt should serve as a warning: this is only the beginning of what is almost certain to become the baseball equivalent of a diarrhea slip-n-slide.  Already embroiled in numerous legal battles, and being attacked from all directions, it’s difficult to imagine Frank McCourt simply shrugging off the notion of losing control of his Los Angeles Dodgers.  This is a man who’s already quite accustomed to fighting, to lashing out in spite, to hurting anyone that gets in his way.  Can anyone honestly say that they’d be surprised to see Frank McCourt barricaded inside Dodger Stadium, stripped to his underwear, covered in war-paint and armed to the teeth?  Okay, perhaps that’s a bit of an overstatement, but this is a man who is quite possibly on the verge of a Charlie Sheen-sized meltdown.   We’re talking ugly, folks—monkey knife fight-type ugly.  Rest assured, there will be blood.