Looking for Help at the Not-So-Hot Corner

To begin the season, third base was already looking particularly thin, especially when you looked past the elite tier: Evan Longoria, David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman and even Alex Rodriguez.  Interestingly enough, the one thing each member of that quartet has in common is that every one of them has sustained a major injury this year—as defined by time lost to the DL.  Longoria was absent from April 3 until May 33, and didn’t hit his first home run until May 7.  David Wright hasn’t played now since May 15, after sustaining a [gulp] broken back (speaking of serious injuries).  Zimmerman, slowly but surely having his career partially defined by his penchant for injuries was out from the second week of April until June 14, and he’s still hitting just .240 with 5 HR (maybe he’s still not completely healthy).  And everyone’s favorite cornerstone, A-Rod, just went on the 15-day DL on July 8 following knee surgery and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks.  All that DL time just added injury to insult, making it nearly impossible for fantasy owners to find a productive bat at the hot corner.

One intriguing option entering the year was Pedro Alvarez of the Pittsburg Pirates.  The Pirates seemed on the verge of finally improving (and improve they certainly have), but it was believed that Alvarez was going to have to have a big offensive season for that to happen.  After hitting 29 home runs between the big leagues and minors in 2010 (16 with Pittsburgh), it seemed like he was ready for a breakout season in 2011.  Not counting Jose Bautista (who was ranked as an outfielder), Alvarez seemed as capable of anyone (Mark Reynolds included) to hit 40 bombs while playing third.  He hasn’t lived up to his potential.  In 36 disappointing big league games this season, Alvarez hit just .208 with two (TWO?!?!?!) home runs.  His OBP still sits at a miserable .283, and it took a May 18 home run to finally push his SLG over .300.  That translates to a .587 OPS—a clear indication that something (some things, plural) was amiss.  In fact, Alvarez has been so bad this year that the Pirates had no recourse but to send him back to AAA following an injury off his own (really, every 3B in baseball has been hurt).  That’s where he currently resides, hoping to earn another shot with the perplexingly pugnacious Pirates.

The silver lining, if there is one, is that Alvarez is finally hitting in Indianapolis.  In 13 AAA games, Alvarez is hitting .370 with a .444 OBP and .543 SLG—numbers that suggest he’s finally healthy. Granted, it’s just 138 plate appearances, but his 2 home runs, 12 runs, and 10 RBIs are all positive signs.  A little more seasoning and he’s almost certain to return to the big club.  It’s not like Brandon Wood (talk about failed prospects) and his .209 batting average or .619 OPS present insurmountable obstacles for Alvarez to return.  Interestingly enough, a power bat seems to be the one missing ingredient for Pittsburgh to continue their surprising playoff push.  They’ve been linked in trade rumors to a few names, including Josh Willingham and Carlos Pena.  However, Alvarez might be able to offer a boost with zero cost to the team.  The potential cost to fantasy owners would be almost as minimal.  It’s not like he not widely available on the waiver wire, and considering the dearth of healthy, productive third basemen, he might not be a terrible speculative add.

The Superman of Walks

Look…up in the sky.  It’s a bird.  It’s a plane.  It’s another base on balls.  This must mark the impending return of the enigmatic Jonathan Sanchez to the Giants rotation.  Sanchez has been on the 15-day DL since June 25 with left biceps tendinitis [cough] general suckiness [cough], and clearly the team has missed his 3.81 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.  Seriously, replacing that 5.92 BB/9 must have been a daunting task indeed.  Hell, there isn’t a qualified starter with a worse BB/9 than Sanchez.  The saving grace is that Sanchez hasn’t pitched enough innings to qualify for that dubious title, although he does still lead the NL in total walks despite pitching just 89.2 innings.  Way…to…go. [quiet applause]

Could it be that Sanchez’ return has at least a little something to do with Barry Zito having a very Barry Zito-esque start—surrendering 8 ER in just 3.2 IP on July 16?  Interestingly enough, Zito had been pitching fairly well leading up to that game, lowering his 2011 ERA to 3.18 in the process.  It really seemed like the former Cy Young Award winner might be poised for yet another strong start too.  After all, the chips were stacked in his favor: a terrible Padres lineup, at PETCO Park, a few extra days rest to heal anything that might be ailing him.  Talk about a recipe for success.  The missing ingredient?  When Barry Zito is the chef, well, anything is possible.  The end result was nothing less than a crap sandwich.  And, everyone knows what a crap sandwich tastes like even topped with capicola.

The end result is that the Giants are now (re)turning to chaos incarnate, Jonathan Sanchez in the hopes that 8 BB games are less damaging to a team’s success than 8 ER games.  While that seems like a logical tradeoff, in the end there’s really no guarantee that the two stat-lines are mutually exclusive.  The funny thing is the team might be correct in their thinking on this one.  Despite his inability to pitch more than six innings (something Sanchez has done only three times in 2011), and his inability to limit free passes, Sanchez seldom surrenders a lot of earned runs.  In fact, Sanchez has given up more than 3 ER only twice all season, hence the “respectable” ERA.  In the end, it’s seldom going to be pretty (often quite ugly), but Sanchez normally gives that Giants at least a fighting chance when it comes to winning ballgames.

The Slow and Steady Death of Grady Sizemore

Monday, July 18: The day Grady Sizemore’s career ended.  No, he didn’t die in a fire or get mauled by a bear (although that would be quite the news story).  Sizemore reinjured his surgically repaired knee sliding into second base during a July 17 game against the Baltimore Orioles.  This is the same knee he had surgically “repaired” in 2010 (good ole microfracture), an injury that has made the once vaunted outfielder to look like a shadow of his former self. 

It’s not like there’s a laundry list of baseball players that have successfully returned from microfracture surgery.  It’s a procedure just recently came into being in the 1980s and really didn’t gain a footing in the sports science until that later part of the 1990s.  The sports world is more familiar with the procedure in a basketball context, including such notable patients as Amar’e Stoudemire, Jason Kidd, Tracy McGrady, and Greg Oden.  That short list includes some successes and tragic failures.  While we’ve seen a handful of full recoveries, the list of players that continue to experience symptoms and/or fail to recover altogether is long and punctuated by exasperation.  McGrady was half the man he used to be after his procedure(s), and is still unable to stay on the court for more than a few games at a time.  With Oden, a promising career may have come to a crashing end before it ever had a chance to take flight.

With Sizemore, it’s hard to imagine him every recovering to the point where he’s back to being, well, Grady Sizemore.  Don’t forget, Sizemore was going to be baseball’s next superstar, with a rare combination of power, speed and charisma.  He was a three time All Star and the cornerstone of the Indians offense.  A 30-30 player as recently as 2008 (33 HR, 38 SB), Sizemore has just 17 steals in his last 200 games over the course of the last three seasons and is now barely a threat to run.  In 61 games in 2011, he hasn’t managed to swipe a single bag, being thrown out twice.  While he has hit 28 home runs over that same span, his power too has clearly diminished, with a slugging % of .426 compared to a .491 mark through the first five years of his career.  And while he was only a .279 hitter before the injury bug started to take its toll, he’s managed just a .239 AVG since—a below-replacement level outfielder in almost every sense.

Sustaining further injury to an already ailing knee will only serve to exacerbate an already tenuous situation and one that will force the Cleveland Indians to make a difficult decision as a franchise.  Sizemore has an $8.5 million team option ($500k buyout), and that number doesn’t seem appropriate for a player with as much obvious downside as Sizemore offers.  The questions surrounding Sizemore’s future are varied.  If not Cleveland, where?  Assuming Sizemore is unable to return to form (and that certainly seems to be the case), what type of player will he be and how much is that player worth on the open market?

Verlander and That Next Level S**t

Although Detroit’s Justin Verlander has won at least 17 games on four different occasions, he’s never won 20 games in any season, and that must be tearing him up inside.  Why else would he be taking his already dominant game to the proverbial next level while already making it half way to 20 in 2011?  Oh, he may say publicly that 20 is just a number and that it’s all about team wins, because, well, that’s what he’s supposed to say.  He’ll also probably recite chapter of verse from the big book of baseball clichés, talking about giving it 110%, making pitches, hitting spots, and blah, blah, blah…

Make no mistake, Justin Verlander hasn’t been worried about hitting his spots since his BB/9 was approaching 4.00—way back in 2008, and even then he was still mowing down the competition with the greatest of ease.  It’s even easier now, or, that’s what the numbers suggest.  Verlander has his BB/9 down to a career-best 1.89, nearly one full walk lower than his career average.  With an average velocity that challenges any pitcher in the game, he’s been consistently touching triple digits into the eighth and ninth innings.  No, his 8.67 K/9 isn’t the best of his career, but he’s still a strikeout machine ranking second overall in baseball with 124 whiffs.   As a result of all those missed bats is an ERA of 2.38, the lowest such mark of his accomplished career.  Sure, that number may be aided by a .216 opponent’s BABIP, but when Verlander’s throwing balls that even the best hitters in the game can’t touch, you have to start to wonder just how much luck is influencing his stats, if at all.  

June has been just a little bit silly for Verlander: 5-0 with a 0.86 ERA, 0.62 WHIP and a 48:4 K:BB.  He’s had three different games of 10 or more strikeouts, including a season-high 14 just the other day.  This is a guy who’s only surrendered 22 hits in 42.0 innings pitched, meaning the opposition seldom has even a chance to score against him.  The only blemish against the Tiger ace this month has been the two home runs he’s yielded, one to Gordon Beckham (at Chicago) and another to Ty Wiggington (in Colorado)—both in launching-pad environs.  Hell, if you check the calendar, Verlander hasn’t had anything close to a bad start since May 24 where he gave up six earned to Tampa Bay.  Further, Verlander’s last loss came way back on April 27 against Seattle, a full 12 starts ago.  Right now, he’s simply dialed in.

He’s so dialed in, in fact, that it’s pretty difficult to point to another American League pitcher with even an outside chance at outdueling Verlander for this year’s Cy Young Award.  If the vote were cast today, he’d win in a landslide, almost as though he’d run uncontested.  After all, he’s currently fourth in the league in ERA, tops in quality starts, tops in WHIP, tops in Ks, all with the most innings pitched.  Really, the list goes on and on.  And those 10 wins are also tied for the league lead—exactly half way to that vaunted 20-win mark, something the Cy Young Award voting-types are sure to notice.  It’s hardly a lock for Verlander.  After all, there’s still half a season to go.  Still, he’s pitched so well to this point that he could miss some time (Injury?  Paternity?) and still finish squarely in the top-5.

For now, baseball fans should just sit back and enjoy the ride.  It’s been fun already, and with the way June has gone, well, it might be a season for the ages.

Taking a Leap with Cole Hamels

Has anyone taken the time to notice that perhaps the least heralded member of the Philadelphia Phillies vaunted rotation might actually be their best performing pitcher right now?  Well, Jockstrap Journalism noticed.  That’s right, people (and marine mammals)…midway through June, Cole Hamels’ numbers a hold their own against any pitcher in the National League, even the other Phillies.  Right now, Hamels is 9-2 with a 2.49 ERA and 0.92 WHIP—numbers that have him in the earliest of early runnings for National League Cy Young Award.

As the weather has warmed, so too has Hamels.  He’s 2-0 with a 0.78 ERA and 0.61 WHIP so far in the month of June, and Hamels hasn’t lost a start since the beginning of May—that’s more than a month for those of you that are otherwise calendar deprived.  We live in difficult times, cast adrift in a world devoid of calendars and maps (thanks, South Carolina).  Even without access to these modern amenities, Hamels seems to have found his way, having fully righted his ship after an appalling start to the season that left him saddled with a 20.25 ERA after one start.  Yah, he seems to have recovered just fine.

Can he sustain this level of success over a full season?  Well, his FIP (2.28) and xFIP (2.51) both say, “why the hell not?”  Hamels is touting an 8.94 K/9, slightly better than his career mark, and he’s cut his walks to a career-best 1.75 BB/9. When the word “career” starts appearing with abundant frequency in order to irradiate, it may in fact be an indicator that a career year is developing.  This could legitimately be Hamels’ way of taking a run at something special.

To the Suddenly Optimistic Twins Fan

It may be foolish to point this out, but the Minnesota Twins are suddenly the hottest team in baseball.  That’s right, the last place Minnesota Twins…them.  Oh, for sure, any time a team goes 7-1 over any stretch, you have to stand up and take notice.  It’s especially noteworthy when the team in question has been the worst team in the game for most of the season.  With Houston and Oakland also struggling mightily, the Twins failings still stood out amidst lofty expectations to begin the season.  It’s been a long hard road for Minnesota.

Okay people, before your noodles get all excited over the Twins recent run of success, do be aware that six of those wins came against Kansas City (26-36) and a rapidly retreating Cleveland team that’s gone 4-11 over their past 15 games.  Oh, sure, the Indians are still 34-26 and are the creme de la crap that is the American League Central.  Make no mistake, however, these is just not the same Indians team that was lengths in front of the pack to begin the year.  As for the Royals, well, they’re the friggin’ Royals, okay?  They have lots of young and exciting players making their way to the Major Leagues at this very moment, but their glory days still lie past the horizon.

Let’s not forget, too, that the Twins are still dead last in the whole American League, even after their recent success (.387).  This is a team with the worst run differential in all of baseball (-70), meaning their win probability is as embarrassing as their actual won-lost record.  And the hits just keep on coming.  The Twins team OBP (.301) ranks next to last in baseball, with only the Mariners turning in a worse mark.  Sadly, their team SLG (.349) isn’t much better, ranking 27^th, the exact same ranking as their staff ERA.  This should tell you that the Twins struggles aren’t simply a matter of hitting, or lack thereof.  Their pitching staff ranks dead last in the game in total strikeouts (355).  Sure, the Twins as an organization teach their hurlers to pitch to contact, but it’s working a little too well, for the opposition anyway.

Some will be quick to point out that a lot of the Twins struggles can be traced to their inability to field a healthy team.  It’s a valid point; it really is.  No, really.  As if this team wasn’t already beset by injuries, with the likes of Joe Mauer, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Joe Nathan, Jim Thome, Glen Perkins, and Kevin Slowey all on the disabled list in some capacity, the Twins just placed Denard Span on the 7-day DL with a concussion.  That’s not good news—not for Span and not for his team.  Ask Morneau how impactful concussion symptoms can be, influencing balance, depth perception, and vision—all things that are pretty important when it comes to playing baseball.  So, yah, it’s really that bad.

Three-time AL batting champion, Joe Mauer, is on the verge of returning as both he and Tsuyoshi Nishioka (fractured leg) are rehabbing in Class A Fort Myers.  Somewhat sadly, the foolishly optimistic will look to their triumphant returns as a sign of future success.  Alas, there is no future—not in 2011.  The Twins need absolute certitude that Mauer is fully healthy before asking him to return, especially if that means assuming full-time catching duties.  If that means sitting him out for the reas of this year, so be it.  The least they should do is keep him engaged in a rehab program until they have a better grasp on the nature and severity of Mauer’s mysterious leg weakness.  While they’re at it, go ahead (a head) and make sure Morneau and Span are free of their concussion issues before placing them at additional risk in hopes of finishing anywhere but last place.

You hear it all the time: one season does not a career make.  It’s true of an organization too.  One season cannot and should not define the Twins.  They won’t be thrust back into the dark ages of the waning days off the 20^th century when they were being discussed for contraction.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  This is team that has built its foundation upon cogent decisions aimed at long-term, sustainable success.  The immediate gratification of grasping at a few wins in 2011 runs contrary to the very philosophies that have guided the team to almost a solid decade of championship caliber baseball.  Change course now, and you run the risk of paddling against the current until either the boat or the boatmen can continue no longer.  Right the ship…the right way.

The Need for Speed: A Potential Fantasy Maverick

Eric Young Jr. has been on the tip of every fantasy owner’s tongue for what seems like the better part of a decade now.  Well, it hasn’t been nearly that long, but back in 2006 he got everyone more than a little bit excited when he swiped 87 bags for the Rockies in A-ball.  It’s not much of a stretch to say that ballplayers don’t steal 80 bases with great frequency.  In the Major Leagues, in fact, it hasn’t happened since both Rickey Henderson (doy) and Vince Coleman (well, sure) both accomplished the feat in 1988.  While players aren’t necessarily any slower, and pickoff moves probably haven’t improved exponentially, it’s safe to assume that with the power surge of the 1990s and 2000s, the stolen base simply fell out of vogue (strike a pose).  When a player flashes a special talent, especially when that talent goes against the grain (so to speak), it simply stands out all the more.  That’s how fantasy baseball enthusiasts became enamored with the potential of one Eric Young Jr.

Young followed up his professional debut by hitting .291 with another 73 steals in high-A ball in 2007.  And, after hitting .290 with 46 steals in 2008, it was abundantly clear he was cut from the same mold as his father, Eric Young (465 career stolen bases).  The only real obstacle to junior’s path to the Major Leagues were the doubts about his ability to hit for a reasonable average at the game’s highest level, doubts that he has yet to fully erase to this day.

Young’s first taste of the big leagues came in 2009, a year in which the Rockies finished with the best record in franchise history (92-70), losing in the League Division Series three games to one versus the Philadelphia Phillies.  Young had trouble finding regular playing time amidst a pennant race and facing stiff competition at second base from Clint Barmes (23 HR, 12 SB).  Barmes’ greatness (relatively speaking) has already faded from memory, but he was a capable bat despite the .245 batting average.  Young compiled 61 plate appearances batting .246 with four stolen bases and his first big league home run (good for him).

Barmes’ struggles in 2010 led to the Rockies trying desperately to find stability at second base, using the likes of would-be 3B Ian Stewart, Jonathan Herrera, as well as Young in the role.  None fared particularly well, although more playing time meant fantasy baseball owners got a more extended look at Young—189 plate appearances to be exact.  While his batting average still languished (.244) his 17 steals in just 25 games reminded everyone of why their collective interest was piqued in the first place.  Speed is a rare commodity in fantasy circles and the promise of even 40, let alone 80 steals was simply too much to pass up.

2011 was going to be different in Colorado, with newly-acquired Jose Lopez of Seattle Mariners fame finally bringing stability to the right side of the Rockies infield, a move which failed…tragically.  Lopez hit just .208 (.521 OPS), ranking him among the worst hitters in all of baseball.  Long story short, the team juggled the infield, again trying different combinations of players including the likes of Steward and Herrera, none of which really seemed to work for more than a game or two. Even realizing Lopez didn’t seem to bring clarity to the issue.  In fact, when Lopez was released, a familiar name resurfaced in Colorado—Mr. Eric Young Jr.

So, here we are again…again.  After hitting .363 in 42 games in AAA, Young will be given another shot at being a full-time big league second baseman, more or less. Since being recalled, Young has hit .258 in eight games while stealing three bases—effective but understated numbers.  Eight games really isn’t enough of a sample size to really formulate a cogent opinion, but if his six-plus years in the minor leagues is any indication, Young can and will bring one thing to the table, a heaping helping of speed.  With the Rockies also needing occasional help in the outfield (where Young can reasonably fake it), it appears as though this may be the year Young gets to sink or swim on his own merits.  After all, it’s only Herrera and the bloated, range-deprived body of Ty Wiggington standing in his way.  NL-only owners need to be aware of his presence, and should playing time continue to come his way, his steals alone might make Young relevant in deeper mixed formats, ROTO leagues in particular.  It all has a familiar refrain, but this time Jockstrap Journalism might actually be right.  Imagine that.