Bouncing Back After a French Dip?

In each of his first two full big league seasons, former phenom Jeff Francoeur drove in at least 103 runs while averaging 24 home runs.  He found himself on the cover of Sports Illustrated and looked to be developing into every bit the franchise-type player the Braves were hoping he’d become when they drafted him.  However, those first two seasons were all the way back in 2006-07, almost eons ago in baseball terms.  Poor plate discipline would eventually get the better of him as pitchers were able to abuse his willingness to chase pitches outside of the strike zone.  From 2008-2010, Francoeur hit just .256 with a .301 OBP and .389 SLG, only occasionally showing flashes of the player many believed he would be in his early days with Atlanta.  Even two different changes of scenery (Mets and Rangers) couldn’t resurrect what once looked to be a career on the rise.

Things really seemed to bottom out for Francoeur in 2010 when he hit just .249 overall with a .383 SLG.  His LD% also bottomed out at a meager 14.4% and it was clear that he simply stopped hitting the ball hard.  He also exhibited evidence of developing even worse pitch recognition, never a strong suit to begin with.  Francoeur swung at 43.3% of pitches outside the strike zone in 2010, further demonstrating that his early success was a thing of the past.  Simply stated, pitchers keyed in on his kryptonite-like weakness and were able to exploit it at almost every turn.

Yet in 2011, Francoeur is off to a terrific start in Kansas City where he’s hoping to resurrect a career in decline.  A .330 average and .963 OPS suggest that he may have finally figured a few things out, but it’s unclear whether or not he can sustain these levels.  Logic dictates that he’ll eventually run into some struggles and his current numbers, lofty though they may be, will correct themselves and regress toward his career levels. Still, Royals hitting coach Kevin Seitzer seems confident, siting Francoeur’s newfound plate discipline as one catalyst for his early success.  Somehow, Seitzer’s optimism smacks of a certain amount of spin doctoring, as there’s no statistical evidence to suggest that Francoeur has changed his approach in any way.  What is it they say about leopards and spots?   Who knows?  But leopards aren’t very good at the game of baseball, and Francoeur isn’t changing his spots any time soon.

The Fighting, er, "Spending" Phils

Truth: Last year, the Philadelphia Phillies signed Ryan Howard to a five-year, $125 million extension.  That’s an average of $15 million per season.

Consequences: Leading up to the extension, Howard had averaged 49.5 home runs per year, the most of any player in baseball by a noticeable margin.  In those four seasons, Howard never hit fewer than 45 home runs and drove in at least 136 runs—stellar production for any player, regardless of position.  He’d won a National League Most Valuable Player Award and helped the Phillies reach two World Series (winning one).  Clearly, this was the kind of player that was the face of a franchise, and one around whom baseball people love to build franchises.  However…

By the time the contract kicks in (2012), Howard will already be 32 years old, a time when many players are already in their decline phase.  In fact, 2010 already looked an awful lot like the possible beginning of that very decline.  Clearly, a .276 batting average with 31 home runs and 108 RBIs was a good season, it just wasn’t a Ryan Howard season, nor was it a $25 million season.  Further, the early returns on his 2011 season seem to correspond to a further decline (at least so far), with Howard hitting .274 with an .803 OPS (representing a career-low).  Granted, 22 games played is a small sample size, but coupled with his 2010 stats, there’s reason to believe that age, as well as the absence of Chase Utley from the Phillies lineup, is really hurting Howard. 

That’s a great deal of uncertainty for a player who’s still owed the entirety of a $125 million contract.  And, because this is baseball, well, that’s all guaranteed money—money the Phillies will have to pay their slugging first baseman, providing he doesn’t pull a Gil Meche and walk away from a boatload of cash.  With all the problems facing the Phillies already this season (see the Domonic Brown and Utley injuries), it looks like the most significant problems are yet to come.  In all seriousness, how are the Phillies going to continue their recent success buried underneath the enormous dollars owed to so many star-caliber players?  Don’t forget, this is also a team that committed more than $15 million to an almost deceased Utley through 2013.  They owe $109 million to Cliff Lee, already pitching in his 30s and $20 million per season to Roy Halladay through 2013.  Clearly, there’s a very small window for winning here, and despite some early success in 2011, due to recent debilitations and declines, that window already looks to be closing.

McCourt TV: A Must-See Affair

In a move that few could have imagined, the Los Angeles Dodgers, long believed to be perhaps the model baseball franchise, had control of the team placed in the hands of Major League Baseball.  More accurately, day to day control of the team was wrenched from the hands of owner Frank McCourt, despite his death-grip.  Commissioner Bud Selig, who welcomed the McCourts (Frank and his wife) into baseball’s exclusive ownership club in 2004 with open arms, was always a strong supporter of the notion of returning the Dodgers to “family ownership”.  Their relationship was always seen as outwardly friendly.  However, like a close friend that’s had far too much to drink, Selig simply took the keys away from McCourt, and told him to take a cab home.

What exactly this means has yet to be clearly defined.  Since our prying eyes cannot yet see into the future, patience will have to guide our judgment(s), although fear is bound to cloud any vision we may have.  This is a potentially volatile situation, the way staring contests between billionaires often are.   Already, things have soured to such a degree that MLB deemed further inaction impossible—clearly a sign that their faith in the McCourts has waned.

History will eventually judge how we come to see the demise of the Los Angeles Dodgers, such as it is.  One would have to imagine that history will not be kind to the McCourt era.  From the moment the McCourts assumed control of the team, things have steadily declined in Los Angeles.  Debt mounted.  Attendance waned.  Most recently, as if things weren’t bad enough, violence has redefined the way fans across the country see the Dodgers.  Near beating deaths do seem to have a way of putting things in perspective, even for the most oblivious of narcissists.

From the very beginning, the Dodgers were not a sound business investment, or, they weren’t treated as such.  The team was not run capably or thoughtfully.  Rather, they were used and abused like a boutique lap dog—never truly loved, but dressed up and shown off in an effort to impress friends and hangers-on.  Owning a Major League Baseball team was just another in a series of extravagant purchases for the McCourts, who always seemed to view opulence as a virtue.  As long as they had access to life’s extravagances, perhaps the necessities would somehow take care of themselves.  Alas, they didn’t.

Life fell apart pretty quickly for the McCourts.  Apparently all the material wealth could not sustain a healthy and nourshing relationship—something the couple may have never enjoyed.  Jamie McCourt filed for divorce on October 28, 2009, laying claim to half of the team and other shared assets valued at more than $1 billion (with a “B”).  In the petition, filed in a Los Angeles County Superior Court, Mrs. McCourt cited irreconcilable differences as the catalyst for the separation, also demanding that she be reinstated to the position from which she was fired (by her husband) just one week prior.  And so began the utter awesomeness…

The very public, often ugly divorce proceedings between Mr. and Mrs. McCourt should serve as a warning: this is only the beginning of what is almost certain to become the baseball equivalent of a diarrhea slip-n-slide.  Already embroiled in numerous legal battles, and being attacked from all directions, it’s difficult to imagine Frank McCourt simply shrugging off the notion of losing control of his Los Angeles Dodgers.  This is a man who’s already quite accustomed to fighting, to lashing out in spite, to hurting anyone that gets in his way.  Can anyone honestly say that they’d be surprised to see Frank McCourt barricaded inside Dodger Stadium, stripped to his underwear, covered in war-paint and armed to the teeth?  Okay, perhaps that’s a bit of an overstatement, but this is a man who is quite possibly on the verge of a Charlie Sheen-sized meltdown.   We’re talking ugly, folks—monkey knife fight-type ugly.  Rest assured, there will be blood.

Batting Average Immune Deficiency Syndrome (BAIDS)

Twins catcher Joe Mauer is dying.  Or, maybe Mauer is just really, really sick.  It may even be a case of BAIDS: Batting Average Immune Deficiency Syndrome.  Whatever it is, things aren’t looking good for the three time American League batting champion.  MLB.com revealed that Twins senior vice president and general manager Bill Smith stated Mauer’s symptoms included a flu-like illness and general fatigue, prompting the All-Star to fly to Baltimore to see a specialist.  And, when your job (catching) requires non-stop use of your legs, and your legs simply stop working, well, you don’t have to be a doctor to know that things are in a bad way. 

As a catcher, it’s reasonable to suppose that the day-to-day grind of his employment might cause a few nagging injuries, perhaps even requiring the occasional visit to the team trainer.  However, Mauer’s career has been punctuated by a series of seemingly strange physical ailments.  He underwent a surgical procedure to remove a kidney obstruction that was causing back pain.  The procedure was seen as a success, although Mauer was required to limit his running due to complications in his legs.  It was later revealed that additional back problems existed, specifically inflammation of the sacroiliac joint (an area of the pelvis).   Now, there’s this presumably new series of problems afflicting the Twins franchise player.

It’s good to hear that doctors will be toiling away trying to find the true root cause of Mauer’s physical troubles.  At the same time, if Mauer needs to see a doctor at a place like Johns Hopkins, it begs the question whether this is a more serious issue than the team is reporting.  It also begs the question as to why he’s going to Baltimore when there’s a perfectly good hospital in Mauer’s home state of Minnesota.  Let’s be honest here; it’s not as though the Mayo Clinic wouldn’t be able to help.  Why Mauer and the Twins would pass on an opportunity to spend money locally doesn’t bode well for the state economy of Minnesota.  A dyed in the wool Minnesotan like Mauer should know better.

Crashing the Party

Despite leading the Rangers in spring home runs, RBIs and slugging, Chris “Crash” Davis was optioned to AAA to begin the 2011 season.  As a 22 year old, Davis has a breakout season to remember, totaling 39 home runs between AA, AAA, and the Major Leagues.  In fact, in 80 games at the big league level that year, Davis hit 17 home runs, driving in 55 runs and appeared to have secured his position as the Rangers first baseman of the present and future.  Certainly, things were looking bright for the rising star.

And then something happened.  Davis stopped making contact, almost altogether in fact.  Granted, he always carried a lofty K%, never striking out in fewer than 23.6% of his at bats at any professional level.  However, with the Rangers in 2009, things reached an all-time low (or, high depending on your view of the glass)—38.4%K.  This led to Davis’ batting average plummeting from the .280 mark he carried as a vaunted rookie to .238 (.284 OBP) in his sophomore campaign.  His inability to make consistent contact forced the Rangers to option him to AAA to refine his skills. 

It seemed to work.  In 44 minor league games in 2009 Davis reverted back to his dominant form, hitting .327 while slugging .521.  Sure, he was still striking out more than 23% of the time, but he was clearly making more than enough contact to reassert himself as a professional, enough that the Rangers rewarded him with a September call-up.  Once again, if only for a short time, Davis hit.  After his September recall, Davis amassed 110 at bats, hitting .318, and slugging .518 (5 HR).  He still struck out more than 25% of the time, but he seemed to regain his stroke and again lay claim to the first base job in Texas.

Alas, the story repeated itself in 2010.  Davis struggled in April, hitting .188, eventually resulting in his return to the minors.  Another go-round, this time in July, yielded almost identical results (see: .188 AVG in 16 games), and another return to AAA.  September was almost as cruel, with Davis hitting to just a .211 batting average, all the while striking out at an alarming rate (33.3%).  Still, each time he found himself in the minor leagues (103 games), Davis hit: .327 AVG, .520 SLG, .383 OBP, 14 HR, 80 RBIs.  It was becoming fairly obvious that Davis was heading down the dreaded road of the AAAA-player.

Now, following the Josh Hamilton injury, Davis may be getting his last shot with the Rangers.  He was recalled from AAA Round Rock on April 13 to take Hamilton’s roster spot, and with good reason.   Through his first five games, Davis was absolutely raping the ball, hitting .429 slugging an absurd 1.095 (4 HR).  Could this be the year Davis lives up to his potential?

There are obstacles to his success.  One is Mitch Moreland, the incumbent starting first baseman.  Moreland is currently batting .333, successfully reaching base in all but one game to date, and has given manager Ron Washington ample reason to keep him firmly entrenched at the position.  While Moreland doesn’t possess nearly the power that Davis does, he’s shown himself to be a more consistent contact hitter at the big league level.  Another consideration is Michael Young, a player without a true position, but one that currently serves as the Rangers’ primary DH and can spell Moreland at first when necessary.  Should Young get traded (or Davis for that matter), at bats would suddenly become available and a potential outpouring of power could lie in wait.  For the moment, however, Davis (and his potential fantasy owners) will have to remain patient—something Davis has shown little inclination toward thus far in his strikeout-riddled career.

No Pain, No Gain

Feeling fat?  Feeling bloated?  Feeling as though all your post-winter efforts to shed those extra pounds have fallen flat?  Are you living in fear of how women and children will scream in terror at the sight of your bloated, John Goodman-like body once bathing suit season rolls around?  Well, the promise of a new day lies just around the corner.

While it’s unlikely that more Doritos are the answer, and drinking away your sorrows only pushes your BMI closer to the brink of diabetic coma, there is a glimmer of hope.  Proper diet and exercise, the cornerstones of physical fitness, are sometimes not enough in the battle of the bulge.  Occasionally, especially in the most urgent and problematic cases, outside intervention is necessary.  In these instances, the assistance of a personal trainer can make the difference between vulgar corpulence and relative physical normalcy.

The United States, beset by a plague of chronic obesity, can now breathe a collective sigh of relief, as the health of the nation got a little “boost” today.  Barry Bonds’ personal trainer, Greg Anderson, was released from federal custody today, under the direction of U.S. District Judge Susan Illston.  The decision places one more qualified fitness guru back on the open market—a move that can only benefit the overall health and well-being of the average, overweight American.  Perhaps Anderson can even help you.

Clearly, Greg Anderson is the type of personal trainer that is willing to go the extra mile to ensure that his clients achieve a peak level of performance.  Moreover, those same clients, having reached the pinnacle of performance, are most assuredly one step closer to total and complete self-satisfaction.  Not only does Anderson cure the ills of the human body, but his exhaustive methods repair fractured psyches.  We’re talking about a person who is 50% gym-rat, 50% psychiatrist, and 50% fitness messiah.  Mathematics alone reveals that Anderson’s at least 50% greater than the average human being.

Additionally, Anderson isn’t going to let something like “laws” get in the way of you achieving your fitness goals.  Remember, this is a man who has spent some 15 months in prison for a single fitness client.  Imagine what he might be willing to do for the rest of the wanting, American public.  Imagine about what he might be willing (and able) to do for you.  Talk about going the distance.

How to Say You're Sorry-iano...

There was a great deal of head-shaking following the Yankees offseason signing of Rafael Soriano to a three year, $35 million contract.  There was nothing strange about a team paying almost $12 million per season for a pitcher of Soriano’s caliber, especially since he was coming off a season in which he led the American League in saves (45).  Feel free to debate the merits of making a significant investment in any closer, but Soriano’s deal is in line with other top-flight closers of the day.  Joe Nathan, recovering nicely from Tommy John surgery is scheduled to make $11.25 million and Mariano Rivera, the king of kings (in terms of closers), will make a cool $15 million.  So, the precedent exists to pay top-dollar for an elite bullpen arm. 

However, the Yankees already had a closer (the closer) in Mariano Rivera, meaning the team was going to pay a hefty sum for Soriano to be a middle reliever.  There was no precedent for paying a middle reliever over $10 million per season—none whatsoever.  It’s simply not the kind of things well-managed baseball teams do.  Yankee supporters rationalized the deal away by convincing themselves that having two of the game’s best closers pitching successively and successfully would effectively limit each game to a seven inning affair, with innings eight and nine theoretically “in the bag”.

And then, the season happened.  Soriano was the unquestioned goat in the April 5 5-4 loss to Minnesota, a game in which the Yankees led 4-0 after seven innings.  When Soriano entered the game, a great many viewers likely assumed the game was, at that point, as good as won.  Soriano was lights-out as a reliever last year, and Rivera was looming for the ninth.   Game over, right?  Wrong!  Soriano finished the night surrendering 4 earned runs in just 0.2 innings of work, allowing the Twins to tie the game, and eventually win it in extras (Soriano was pulled by then).  Clearly, Soriano was not his usual self, missing location on almost every pitch and eventually walking three Twins batters.  This is a pitcher with a career 2.74 BB/9 (2.02 in 2010).  Simply stated, Soriano just doesn’t do that.  And yet he did.

What went wrong?  Without being able to credibly speak to Soriano’s health and well-being, it can only be assumed that it was an “off night”.  It may sound like a cop out, but that’s just something that happens from time to time.  Players aren’t always at their best, and with pitchers, the consequences can be dire.  Soriano did pitch in three of the Yankees first five games, so it’s possible that fatigue could have played a role.  It could be that that Twins, even with their collectively slumping offense, had a favorable scouting report on Soriano, one that allowed them to gain an advantage at the plate.  Whatever the case, Soriano found himself on the mound without his best stuff, and he ended up paying the price.

In a fantasy context this means almost nothing.  Here too, bad outings happen.  The real bad news for Soriano owners came during the cold months of winter, when Soriano’s signing all but obliterated his fantasy value (at least in standard leagues).  Sure, there are leagues in which middle relievers have value (holds, anyone?), but those leagues are still the exception and not the rule.  The real crime is that Soriano will likely rot behind the immortal Mariano Rivera for at least the next two full seasons, basically assuring that he’ll only be a legitimate fantasy asset in the occasional HLDs-league.  On the bright side, his lack of ownership will make it easier to stomach his occasional bullpen blow-up.  Right?

Damian Schaab is a senior writer for SportsGrumblings.com, and member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can hear his fantasy reflections on XM147/Sirius211 between 8 and 11 PM, EST every Saturday evening at a satellite radio near you. Also, do feel obligated to follow his misanthropic musings via Twitter @jsjournalism and, of course, right here at http://jockstrapjournalism.blogspot.com/