Monday, August 22, 2011

Jered Weaver: The Deep End of the Gene Pool

Remember how Jeff Weaver was, or, was going to be?  As an up and coming Tigers pitcher, it seemed like the sky was the limit for Weaver.  Well, maybe not the sky, because those Tiger teams of the early 2000s weren’t exactly taking the world by storm, and Weaver’s W/L record always reflected that fact. Weaver never had a winning season for the Tigers, despite putting together some downright dominant stretches.  He was eventually traded to the Yankees (where he didn’t fare much better) and then bounced around between a few organizations, including mostly the Mariners and Dodgers.  Assuming Weaver is finished (and it looks like he is), his career record will stand at 104-119, the end result of pitching to a 4.71 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.  Also, a large part of what stunted Weaver’s success was his inability to generate strikeouts despite having pretty good “stuff”.  His career 5.94 K/9 doesn’t exactly bring back memories of Nolan Ryan.
It would seem that all the real pitching talent in the family fell to Jeff’s younger brother Jered—you know, the one that just signed that $85 million contract with the Angels.  He’s actually pretty damn good.  Five years in the league, and Jered was already a five-time double-digit winner, including a 16-8 season in 2009.  Like his brother, Jered never gave up too many free passes, as evidenced by his career 2.44 BB/9.  Unlike his brother, however, Jered didn’t pitch to contact so much, and wasn’t afraid to send a hitter back to the bench shaking his head (career 7.78 K/9).  Those extra two strikeouts per game are the main difference between the brothers, but certainly not the only one.
While analysts were always waiting (often impatiently) for older brother Jeff to take that proverbial next step, younger brother Jered was able to do it—in a big way too.  In fact, for those that have been paying attention to the 2011 season, he’s been doing it this year.   Jered is 14-6 with a 2.10 ERA and 0.97 WHIP and the true ace of a very solid Angels starting staff.  And, knowing full-well what they had, the team rewarded him with that big, fat contract.
Funny thing though, there are a lot of people questioning Weavers decision to settle for so little, given the recent contract developments for frontline starters recently.  Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia are all basically set for life.  And while the average Joe might not be able to even fathom having $85 million in the bank, it’s a far cry from what those aforementioned mound aces are bringing home.  Lee is averaging $24 million a season and Sabathia is scraping by at $23 mil. per.    Let’s not forget that Johan Santana is making just under $23 million not to pitch for the Mets in 2011, and possibly never again.  But, therein lies the motivation for Weaver to cash in now—volatility.  How long before Weaver feels his first real ache, pain, or strain?  How long before he finds himself on the DL for an extended period of time?  How long before he spends a summer in the waiting room of Dr. James Andrews?  Or, how long before his electric stuff simply dries up, preventing him from being an effective Major League starter (like his brother before him)?

Monday, August 15, 2011

Did the Tigers Manage to Upgrade Their OF?

So, what you’re telling us is that trades can and do happen after the trade deadline?  That’s what the Twins and Tigers are saying after the Twins sent Delmon Young packing to Detroit for left-hander Cole Nelson and a player to be named later.  It’s the kind of deal that would be barely worth mentioning if not for the name-cache of the players involved.  Magglio Ordonez (indirectly involved in the trade) was once a legitimate star player in the league, even if that star has dimmed.  Young was once Baseball America’s top-rated prospect and did have at least one productive season, hinting at his former (?) abilities. 
The Tigers seem intent on improving the team’s offensive production, particularly from the outfield, where Young will presumably take at bats away from Ordonez (among others).  Ordonez currently owns a .2223 batting average, .280 OBP and .295 SLG—all representing career lows for the former All-Star.  Despite making millions and millions of dollars, the writing is on the wall for Ordonez that if the end isn’t here, it’s decidedly near.  He isn’t helping the Tigers in their 2011 playoff push, and it’s time for him to step aside for a better player.
Anyone getting excited about the notion of Young stepping in as the missing piece in the Tigers outfield may want to consider his numbers.  His .266 batting average, .305 OBP, and .357 SLG are only marginal improvements.  Oh, sure, a lot of people will point to Young’s 112 RBIs from 2010as definitive proof that he’s a better player at this stage in his career than Ordonez.  However, the argument here isn’t whether Young is better; it’s all about how much better.  Delmon Young offers a positive contribution (0.6 WAR), but the difference between he and whatever the Tigers already had lying around is negligible.
Left field is the domain of Brennan Boesch, who has been dealing with an injured thumb lately.  Boesch’s .809 OPS is easily the best among any OF-eligible player on the Tigers roster.  He’s not going to be displaced by anyone right now, especially not Young.  The speedy Austin Jackson is a fixture in center field, and even though his 2011 production (batting average in particular) has been largely a disappointment, he’s not going anywhere either.  Hell, Jackson is the only person on the Tigers roster capable of playing center, something he actually does rather well.
Andy Dirks has been far better than advertised.  In limited playing time (171 at bats) he’s totaled six home runs and four steals—both outpacing Young on the year (305 at bats, no less).   Don Kelly has produced numbers that look eerily similar to Young’s (.235, 3 HR, 2 SB) and in far less playing time.  If Young has one advantage, aside from his former prospect-pedigree, it’ the simple fact that he’s a right-handed hitter.  Dirks and Kelly both bat from the left side, and Young does offer a different option for manager Jim Leyland, albeit a pretty mediocre option.

Monday, August 8, 2011

Colorado's Very Rocky Rotation

In a deal that smacks of desperation (pitcher’s neck broken by a batted ball-type desperation), the Rockies signed Kevin Millwood.  Millwood spent most of the 2011 season pitching in the Boston Red Sox system, although calling it “pitching” might be an overestimation.  In his 16 minor league games (Red Sox and Yankees), Millwood has gone 7-2, almost in spite of himself.  He’s pitched to a 4.32 ERA while posting a 7.6 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9—numbers that don’t seem to portend of future success.
Despite having posted some very good seasons early in his career, Millwood is just not a big league pitcher any more.  The last time he posted a K/9 above 7.0 was way back in 2004.  Since then, he’s averaged 6.4 K/9 over six seasons, during which time he’s also pitched to a 61-73 record, 4.37 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, making Millwood an average pitcher at best.  The past four seasons, however, Millwood’s been even worse, pitching to a 4.73 ERA and 1.51 WHIP—numbers that would get him released from anyone’s fantasy team, and from every Major League team as luck would have it.  There’s a reason he hasn’t pitched at the big league level this season—he’s just not good enough.
Alas, here’s the door, slightly ajar, mostly because Juan Nicasio is out for the remainder of the season after suffering a broken vertebra in his neck.  IT’s a scary injury to be certain, but all indications are that Nicasio is doing well following a surgery to address the injury.  Coupled with the departure of staff ace Ubaldo Jimenez (traded to Cleveland), the Rockies are terribly thin in their rotation.  Don’t forget, they also lost Jorge De La Rosa to Tommy John surgery on June 3.  So, that’s the bad news.
The infinitely worse news is that the team somehow feels that Kevin Millwood might be an upgrade over whatever they have going right now.  Currently, the Rockies rotation includes Jhoulys Chacin, Aaron Cook, Jason Hammel, and Esmil Rogers.  That’s right, just when it seems like every big league team is contemplating a 6-man rotation, the Rockies only have four starters—total.  And to think that entering the season the Rockies looked as though their rotation might actually be their strength.  That is no longer the case.  In fact, inking Millwood clearly signals that at 53-62 the team is simply hoping to finish the 2011 season without fate interceding and claiming yet another starter.  If you’re looking for some levity in this otherwise grim ordeal, the starting pitching situation in Colorado does feel a little bit like the drummer situation in Spinal Tap, doesn’t it?

Thursday, August 4, 2011

It's All in Morneau's Head

Reports out of Minnesota indicate that former American League MVP Justin Morneau’s surgically repaired neck isn’t bothering him.  While he had surgery back on June 29 to repair a herniated disc in his neck, it looks like he’s already eyeballing a return to the Twins.  In fact, he’s set to begin a rehab assignment in AAA Rochester.  Hopefully this is the Rochester where the Mayo Clinic is located, because there’s more than just a neck injury to worry about with Morneau.  This is a player who just hasn’t been himself since suffering a concussion on July 7, 2010—an injury that forced him to miss the rest of the season.  Since returning, he’s hit just .225 with a .281 OBP and .338 SLG.  His limitations are the obvious result of post-concussion syndrome (PCS), an ailment that has ended many a professional athlete’s career before his time.  The general medical consensus is that symptoms that don’t dissipate after one year are likely to be permanent.  That’s right; Morneau could be forced to deal with this for the rest of his days on Earth.
That’s a prospect none of us would want to face.  Regardless of how post-concussion syndrome affects Morneau’s playing career, it’s likely to be an obstacle in his day-to-day life—something to which everyone can relate.  Imagine going through each day with severe headaches, dizziness, and even blurred vision, all without getting drunk the night before.  It’s like a hangover that never ceases—unrelenting in and painful.  There are also lasting psychological effects that have been linked to PCS, including anxiety, irritability, and depression.
Alas, this is what Justin Morneau now faces.  He assures his adoring fans that he’s feeling better and pledges to get back to doing what he loves most (playing baseball) in life as soon as he can.  However, Corey Koskie loved baseball too, and after being diagnosed with PCS in 2006, he had to walk away from the game just a year later.  Mike Matheny was best known for his four Gold Gloves behind the plate, but he too was driven from the game by PCS. 
In fact, as more and more becomes known about the lasting effects of concussions, the game of baseball will have to find a way to address the issue before it grows to epic proportions as we’ve seen in other sports, specifically football and hockey.  In those sports, concussions are an everyday occurrence, and as science tries to keep pace with the escalating financial commitment of sport, it’s important to pay attention to the way in which player’s lives are being affected.  Mind you, in a win at all costs society, and with a prevailing “rub some dirt on it” mentality in sports, generally, it won’t be easy to change the existing culture. 

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

The Show Must Go On...

We’ve seen look-alikes before.  Joe Maddon of the Tampa Bay Rays had one, and he rose to a certain amount of fame, albeit just locally and briefly.  It seems that the city of Seattle now has a doppelganger of its own to deal with.  There’s been an Ichiro Suzuki impersonator running amok at Safeco Field, posing with adoring fans and even obliging autograph requests from time to time.
He’s been to numerous games, in full Mariners regalia, including that all too famous number 51 jersey, high socks and just the right curvature to his M’s cap atop his head—a head that bears an uncanny resemblance to the 10-time All-Star, right down to the trademark facial hair.  It’s a pretty amazing resemblance, really.  He was even removed from a Mariners game for interfering with a live ball during the course of a game during an August 3 contest against the Oakland Athletics.  Fans were hard on the mimicking Mariner as security escorted him from the game, but what most failed to realize is that this isn’t the first time this copycat has involved himself on the field of play.  In fact, he’s been on the field a great deal this season.
A quick glance at the numbers reveals what some have suspected for most of the season—that Ichiro Suzuki has vanished.  It seems almost unthinkable, but the stats don’t lie.  The real Ichiro was a .331 career hitter entering the 2011 season, but this sad approximation is currently hitting just .264.  In fact, every shred of statistical evidence supports the notion that Ichiro (the player, the icon, the legend) has been replaced by a stand-in.  That stand in has a 186-point difference in OPS, and he’s certainly not going to reach 200 hits, something the real Ichiro could have done in his sleep.  Alas, it’s hard to expect the understudy to perform as well as the star listed on the marquee.  While the double looks, dresses, and moves like the leading man, there are palpable differences (like a 61-point drop in OBP or 117-point drop in SLG) that even the most casual observer can detect.  This charlatan still has some baseball talent (28 steals), but he hasn’t managed to fool everyone. 
The fans noticed, and so too did opposing managers.  The phony Ichiro failed to earn an All-Star nod for the first time since arriving in the Major Leagues, perhaps a turning point in his career.  It’s hard to say if and when the real Ichiro will return to the game.  If he does, will he ever be the same player that electrified fans for the past decade with hit after game-changing hit?  Will he be able to recapture the aura he once possessed?  Will he continue to make a run at what once seemed like a clear path to the Hall of Fame? For now, the show must go on, even without one of the game’s brightest stars.

Monday, August 1, 2011

Rangers Bolster the Bullpen at the Deadline

If not for the superior pitching of the San Francisco Giants and some timely hitting by Cody Ross (and Co.), the Texas Rangers would have won a World Series in 2010.  That alone could have been enough of an accomplishment to placate fans for at least a few seasons.  However, management refused to rest on its laurels, realizing that the team’s 61-48 record in 2011 places them in a position to make another playoff (World Series?) run.  That realization led to a couple of noteworthy deadline deals to bolster the Rangers bullpen, perhaps the most glaring weakness on an otherwise strong Texas squad.  With a collective ERA of 4.42, the Rangers bullpen ranked 11th in the American League.  Because of two notable transactions, that should no longer be an issue.

In one deal, the team acquired Mike Adams, formerly off the Padres, a pitcher who is 3-1 on the year with a 1.12 ERA and 0.73 WHIP and was third in baseball with 23 holds at the time of the trade.  In fact, since joining the Padres, Adams went 9-5 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 217 innings.  If that weren’t enough, he carried a 4.08 K/BB over that span, striking out 241 while walking just 59 (just 9 BB in 48 IP in 2011).  With all the trade rumors surrounding closer extraordinaire Heath Bell, many baseball executives felt Adams was the more valuable arm, both in terms of dollars and production.  Based on the available evidence, they may very well have been correct; Nolan Ryan and the Rangers brass seem to think so.

In another, the Rangers obtained the services of Koji Uehara from the Baltimore Orioles.   Despite his success the last two years, Uehara has been one of the more unsung bullpen heroes in baseball.  Since becoming a reliever full-time in 2010, he’s done nothing but dominate.  As the primary set-up man and sometimes closer in Baltimore, Uehara has compiled an impressive resume.  His 2.25 ERA and 0.82 WHIP would impress anyone, but it’s his 9.15 K/9 over that span that really defines his success.  In 92 innings, Uehara amassed 119 strikeouts, all while pitching in the brutal climate that is the American League East.  Not only does he pitch well, he pitched well against top-flight competition in high-leverage situations.  One might even make the argument that he’s, well, “clutch”.

In the process, the Rangers rid themselves of 4-A superstar Chris Davis, a player that has shown time and time again that he’s just too talented for triple-A and simply not quite ready for prime time in the big leagues.  He has all the power in the world, but with a ridiculous strikeout rate (31.7% for his career) and inability to hit big league pitching, well, his upside is that of new Orioles teammate Mark Reynolds.  Frankly, when your upside is that of one of the most frustrating players the game has seen in recent years (Reynolds), it’s hard to see his departure is a tragic loss.  Any way you slice it, Davis’ greatest asset to the Rangers was as a trade chip, and that’s just what happened.  Having to include pitcher Tommy Hunter (4.36 career ERA) was of little consequence given all that’s at stake for the Rangers.

The Rangers now have three of the most dominant relief pitchers in the game today anchoring their bullpen.  Let’s not forget that they still have 2010 AL Rookie of the Year Neftali Feliz to close out games at the back end.  The problem with Feliz is that he’s regressed mightily this season.  His K/9 fell from 9.2 in 2010 to just 6.3 in 2011.  His BB/9 has basically doubled too, jumping from 2.34 to 4.66.  His inability to find the plate has forced manager Ron Washington to lose even more hair—something he can ill afford to do.  Should he struggle in the future, there are now two highly capable arms (statistically superior ones too) to take over should circumstances dictate.  The suggestions that the additions of Adams and Uehara have ostensibly shortened every Rangers game to a six-inning contest is a bit of an overstatement, but it’s patently obvious that they are a better team today than they before the July 31 trade deadline.